Buck public trend, take Ohio State plus points

Rookie quarterbacks are usually a bad bet on the road. In this case, the quarterback in question, Southern California's Matt Barkley, is a true freshman.

We'll find out Saturday if Barkley is an exception. A rule often stressed in Football Handicapping 101 -- rookie passers are likely to fail in their first road trip -- is about to be tested.

The Trojans never flinch in big games, and they always beat up on Big Ten opponents, so it comes as no surprise they are favored and expected to display their greatness at Ohio State.

If the Buckeyes prove to be too slow, if their defense gets trampled and if their coach, Jim Tressel, crawls into his conservative shell, who is going to be shocked?

USC crushed Ohio State 35-3 last year, sending the Buckeyes back to Columbus as scalded dogs. But the Trojans' quarterback in that game, Mark Sanchez, is about to make his first NFL road start for the New York Jets.

On Sunday night, the oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out USC minus-41/2 as the suggested opening line. Sports books posted the number at 7, and the game is shaping up as one that will pit public bettors against the professionals. The pros prefer home 'dogs.

"I think there's value in Ohio State, and I'm probably going to play it," said Dave Cokin, a longtime handicapper and local ESPN Radio host. "I know the public likes USC in this game, which is probably encouraging. My gut feeling is the pros will bet Ohio State.

"It's just value in the number, and it's as simple as that. It should be a really good game. I think Ohio State has the speed to stay with them. I'd be surprised if it's a blowout."

The number on the Trojans went up after last week's disparate results. USC wasted San Jose State 56-3, as Ohio State barely survived a scare in a 31-27 victory over Navy. But the final scores you see are a little deceiving.

The Buckeyes were looking ahead and not fully focused on the Midshipmen and their unique offense. Still, Ohio State led 29-14 with 6:30 left, when Tressel strangely balked at a short field-goal attempt and gambled on a fourth-and-2 running play. It was a bad call.

If the Buckeyes had made the field goal and led 32-14, Cokin said, "Then they win that game by a much wider margin and nobody is saying anything."

The Trojans, playing a far inferior opponent, were unimpressive to open the game. Barkley's first four series resulted in two fumbles and two punts. When it was over, all that was forgotten, and Barkley had 233 yards passing and a lot of admirers.

Barkley might get rattled -- or he might play it cool -- in front of about 105,000 hostile fans in the Horseshoe, but he won't have to light up the scoreboard by himself. Joe McKnight, Stafon Johnson and USC's deep stable of running backs will do most of the work.

It's up to Ohio State's defense to contain the run, and the most important player on the field will be Buckeyes quarterback Terrelle Pryor, who can run and throw like Vince Young, for better or worse.

Ohio State is 47-1 in its past 48 home games against nonconference foes. But it's not hosting Akron or Youngstown State now.

The opponent is Pete Carroll, who is 27-7 against the spread in his past 34 games and has covered eight straight as a single-digit favorite.

Last year, with no Beanie Wells to run the ball, with Pryor having no experience and with the Buckeyes being on the road, they were Barry Manilow walking into a street fight. No chance.

The Trojans should win, but it's a fairer fight. I'll take Ohio State and the seven points and look over the total of 45.

For the record, Cokin said he also has opinions on Stanford (+3) over Wake Forest, Louisiana Tech (+8) over Navy and UNLV (+7) over Oregon State.

• CLOSING NUMBERS -- My six picks went 2-4 last week. Two of the losers, Illinois and UNR, proved to be embarrassing plays, leaving me as cranky as Chris Ault and feeling as clueless as Ron Zook. Expect better results (Home team in CAPS):

OHIO STATE (+7) over Usc; PENN STATE (-281/2) over Syracuse; IOWA STATE (+61/2) over Iowa; South Carolina (+7) over GEORGIA; Notre Dame (-3) over MICHIGAN; UNLV (+7) over Oregon State.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal. com or 702-387-2907.