Decision XLV a close call

At polling places around Las Vegas -- the sports books, in other words -- some influential bettors are voting for Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback candidate most likely to win the Super Bowl.

Rodgers is the face of the Green Bay Packers, so a bet on the Packers is a vote for Rodgers, and his approval rating is high.

But the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have won the big game twice with Ben Roethlisberger, are hardly ugly underdogs, and they figure to get their share of support with 10 days remaining before kickoff on Feb. 6.

This game is much more attractive than the average political race. This is like choosing the Playboy Playmate of the Year.

While plenty of tickets are being punched for No. 101 (Pittsburgh), the biggest tickets are showing up on Green Bay. Word on the Strip, from reliable sources, is MGM Resorts accepted a $1 million wager on No. 102 (the Packers) this week.

Jay Rood, MGM's sports book director, did not confirm that bet, but he said, "We've taken some big money on the Packers."

Rood said he has "one six-figure bet on the Steelers," and several large wagers on the Packers. At MGM books, Green Bay is favored by 2½ points (minus-120).

"If I go to 3, it's going to be kicking and screaming," Rood said. "I'm really anticipating getting some strong Steelers money the latter part of next week."

Mike Colbert, the M Resort sports book director for Cantor Gaming, said he's seeing a "dead-even ticket count" with his line at Green Bay minus-2½ (minus-125). Most books are sitting at 2½ (minus-110).

"At the price we're at right now, there's definitely bets on both sides. No $1 million bets," Colbert said. "We've seen some Packers money, but nothing really huge. It's surely Green Bay a small favorite, so 2½ seems to be the right number. I can assure you there will be takers at plus-3 if it ever gets there.

"I don't see any real advantage to either side. It's a hell of a Super Bowl, and I think it's going to be a close game."

Seeing where the number was headed when it opened, professional gambler Steve Fezzik said he bet the Packers at Pick (minus-120). He also bet the total under 46 and the first-half total under 23. The total has dipped to 44½.

"If you like Green Bay, the most you can say is Green Bay should be favored by 3," Fezzik said. "If you like Pittsburgh, the most you can say is it should be Pick. Green Bay should be a very modest favorite."

The side and total are the meat and potatoes. The propositions turn the game into the NFL's betting buffet, and Fezzik was among the many lining up at the Las Vegas Hilton at 4 p.m. Thursday when 300-plus props were posted on the glowing boards.

The pros take the props seriously, as the opportunities to middle and scalp numbers are many. I talked to a pro who said he wagered over $150,000 on props and maybe $1,000 on the side and total in last year's Super Bowl.

Props make the game fun for $20 bettors. The Hilton was taking $2,000 a pop on Thursday.

Fezzik (LVAsports.com) said he would bet on no score in the first 6:30 of the game. "Especially if Pittsburgh has the ball first," he said, "because Pittsburgh is going to run the ball and punt."

Expect the Packers to come out throwing, Fezzik said, because that's their strength and also the only proven way to beat the Steelers' defense.

"No one can run against Pittsburgh, so why try? Running the ball is a complete waste of time," Fezzik said. "Obviously, if Green Bay is behind at the end, Rodgers is going to be chucking the ball all over the place."

The Hilton posted props on Rodgers' total completions (22½), passing yards (270½) and rushing yards (18½).

"It's a really good matchup for the Packers. I think they will spread them out with those receivers and really be able to move the ball on the Pittsburgh defense. It will be interesting to see how Rodgers responds," Colbert said. "But I think Roethlisberger is as good a big-game quarterback as I've seen."

Rodgers or Roethlisberger? It's not that simple.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.