Disparity in NFL cuts profits for books

As beautiful as it can be to watch Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees work their magic, this NFL season also has an ugly side. We're seeing a plague of poor quarterbacks and pitiful teams and a disappearance of parity.

When the results are predictable for bettors, and the good teams mercilessly pound the bad ones, it doesn't get any better.

Las Vegas sports books took a severe beating Sunday, with estimated losses in the $8 million range, according to various sources.

But the books win most of the time -- and the figures to back that up are staggering -- so we feel no sympathy for the bookies, and they're not asking for hugs, either.

"The general consensus from people I talked to, it was not pretty. But that's part of what we do," said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books and a Las Vegas bookmaker since the 1970s. "The question is always brought up: What do we do from here? You book 'em, and you put 'em up. You ride the year out."

Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay described Week 7 of the NFL as a "bloodbath" for the books.

Jay Rood, MGM Mirage sports book director, said, "It was disastrous. It was the worst Sunday I've ever seen."

What developed was a perfect storm of mismatches. It started with Indianapolis beating St. Louis 42-6, New England beating Tampa Bay 35-7, Green Bay beating Cleveland 31-3, and San Diego beating Kansas City, 37-7. Pittsburgh, another favored team, needed a lucky late touchdown to cover against Minnesota.

In the afternoon games, more favorites rolled. The New York Jets beat Oakland 38-0, Dallas beat Atlanta 37-21, and New Orleans overcame a 21-point deficit to cover against Miami.

Favorites were 8-2-1 against the spread going into the Sunday night game in which Arizona was an underdog to the New York Giants. Bettors were lining up to cash parlay tickets.

Rood said MGM Mirage books cashed seven 10-team parlays at 700-1 odds and two 11-teamers at 1,400-1 odds -- and that was the tip of the parlay iceberg.

Only the Cardinals' upset of the Giants kept the books from losing more millions.

"It was a gigantic game. It averted compounding the problem," Rood said. "It was probably one of the biggest games ever played for Nevada sports books."

Rood said the books had a profitable September, and the truth is the books will survive and thrive. According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board, the state's football wagering handle was $1.092 billion for fiscal year 2009, ending June 30. The state's win was $46.2 million.

The NFL's new disparity will just cut into those profits this year.

Long before my time, "The Magnificent Seven" was a great movie starring Yul Brynner, Charles Bronson and Steve McQueen. What the NFL has now is The Miserable Seven.

St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Tennessee are a combined 0-20 straight up and 4-16 against the spread (ATS). Cleveland, Detroit, Kansas City and Oakland are a combined 5-22 straight up and 10-17 ATS. So those seven teams are 5-42 and 14-33 ATS.

"We're seeing something I haven't witnessed in 40 years where the bad teams are staying bad," Vaccaro said. "I can't say for sure, but you may see teams start to give up."

The oddsmakers are inflating the lines on the ugly underdogs. The public will continue to bet the big favorites. History says some of the big 'dogs eventually will cover, so none of us should overreact.

"What makes this perplexing is how well the double-digit underdogs did last year, starting 17-1 ATS. This year it seems that not only are there more bad teams, but the performances have been awful," Vegas Insider handicapper Barry Holthaus said. "The big questions for oddsmakers and handicappers is, how much to adjust and how long will this continue? You hate to be late to the party."

In 2007, the Patriots opened the season 9-1 against the spread. The lines were inflated, to more than 20 points in three games, and New England burned its backers by going 1-5 ATS down the stretch.

"You were only dealing with one team then. Now you're dealing with six or seven. This is a little different because we haven't seen it with multiple teams," Vaccaro said. "The game usually comes back to the number. But you can't give some of these teams away.

"I don't blame these people for betting these (favored) teams until they lose two or three times in a row. I don't blame them one bit. The only way it stops is the people have to lose a couple weeks in a row."

The Chargers are the biggest favorites of Week 8. San Diego hosts the Raiders and is laying 17 points at most books.

"We're getting a little bit of a bite on the Raiders at 171/2," Vaccaro said. "With every bet on the Raiders, you should get a ticket and a bottle of Pepto Bismol."

If you choose to bet on miserable teams, grab a barf bag. Stick with winning teams and quality quarterbacks -- like Manning, Brady and Brees.

Sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.