Don’t wager on long stay for BYU

Breaking up with a longtime girlfriend can be sentimental, experiencing the death of a pet can be emotional and seeing Jimmer Fredette play his final college basketball game sooner than expected seems inevitable.

Three teams are representing the Mountain West Conference in the NCAA Tournament. One (San Diego State) has a shot to go a long way, one (UNLV) will win no more than a game and the other (Brigham Young) is the wild card in the deal.

How far can Fredette, the nation's leading scorer, carry the Cougars in the 68-team bracket?

"BYU is in trouble right off the bat," said Dave Cokin, a Las Vegas handicapper and ESPN Radio host. "I would not be shocked if they get sent home in the first round. I don't think they'll be playing long."

The Cougars, seeded No. 3 in the Southeast Region, open play as 8-point favorites over Wofford on Thursday. The Terriers, for those who might not remember, put a major scare into Wisconsin in last year's first round.

Expect them to push BYU to the limit, too. As usual, Fredette will drain long-distance jumpers, pile up points and whine to the officials. He's a sensational talent, but the senior guard no longer stars for a great team. The suspension of sophomore forward Brandon Davies, who allegedly had sex with his girlfriend and actually admitted it, has furthered the notion that the Cougars were more than Fredette.

The truth is, as Cokin said, BYU "got a little lucky with the draw," but the Cougars also will need a red-hot Fredette and some luck to advance to the Sweet 16.

The most entertaining betting event of the year is about to begin. The Super Bowl is one game and hundreds of propositions. The NCAA Tournament -- from the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, to the Final Four in Houston -- is 67 games and countless crazy point-spread results.

With parity in the field and the lack of power teams, I expect more upsets than usual in this tournament, and BYU is a candidate to be one of the early victims.

Ohio State earned the top overall seed and is my pick to win it.

The NCAA selection committee once again set the stage for plenty of debatable topics Sunday: How did Florida get seeded No. 2? Why was Colorado excluded? How is it possible Cincinnati, which played a ridiculously weak nonconference schedule and lost a Big East tournament game by 38 points, gets a No. 6 seed?

When the opening lines were posted, the Bearcats were 1-point underdogs to Missouri, and that says all you need to know about Cincinnati. If a better-seeded team loses, it's not always an upset.

Michigan State, a No. 10 seed, is a 1½-point favorite over seventh-seeded UCLA.

If looking for live underdogs, Cokin (jimfeist.com) has two to suggest -- Princeton getting 14 points against Kentucky, and Bucknell as a 12-point underdog to Connecticut.

"It's going to be a real tough game for Kentucky, which is a very young team, and young teams are prone to having bad things happen to them in the tournament," Cokin said. "But I don't think Kentucky will lose to Princeton."

Connecticut just won five games in five days in the Big East tourney, but Cokin said, for Kemba Walker and the Huskies "there's going to be a hangover" this week.

SportsXRadio.com handicapper Chuck Edel said Bucknell is one of his top plays, and he also likes Belmont as a 5-point underdog to Wisconsin.

UNLV is a 1½-point favorite over Illinois on Friday, and it's a game the Rebels should win, Cokin said, if they don't get caught looking ahead to a potential matchup with top-seeded Kansas.

"The Rebels are better than Illinois, and I would say three points better," Cokin said. "Go in and take care of business, and then we can start complaining about Kansas."

It's about as difficult to escape from Alcatraz on a raft as it is to be a No. 8 or 9 seed and escape the first weekend.

San Diego State, a No. 2 seed in the West Region, got a much more favorable draw. The Aztecs opened as 16-point favorites over Northern Colorado, and then could face Temple or Penn State.

"I would not have had a problem at all if they had made San Diego State a No. 1 seed instead of Pitt," Cokin said. "If the Aztecs get decent shooting out of D.J. Gay and good guard play, they can be a Final Four team."

But BYU is not a Final Four team, and it might not survive to see next week. Fredette has been fun to watch, but some good things come to a premature end.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.