Expect Johnson, Titans to hang with Saints

It appeared for a while the Tennessee Titans got bamboozled by Chris Johnson, who reversed a cliche. He took the money and stopped running.

After sitting out the preseason, Johnson was paid the respect an elite NFL running back typically deserves. He signed a $53.5 million contract extension, with $30 million guaranteed, and promptly turned into a fat cat who was running scared. He was indecisive with the ball and afraid of contact.

Johnson's case was one of diminishing returns, and the Titans were feeling buyer's remorse for overpaying a knucklehead. But his stock is rebounding, and he's again resembling the form from his 2,006-yard season in 2009.

Tennessee (7-5) has won three of its past four games, with Johnson running for more than 100 yards in three of those games.

Still, the Titans are nowhere near an offensive juggernaut, especially when compared to the New Orleans Saints, who lead the league in total offense behind quarterback Drew Brees.

Big passing numbers aside, the Saints show some flaws. Their offense is not quite as powerful on the road, and a strong running attack can shred their defense. So this is when Johnson needs to be a money player.

I'll back the Titans as 3½-point underdogs to the Saints on Sunday, when Tennessee's game plan will be to control the clock with a ground attack and limit Brees' aerial assault as much as possible.

Brees has passed for 4,031 yards and 30 touchdowns, but he's better at home in the Superdome, where New Orleans is 6-0 straight up and against the spread and every game turns into a Mardi Gras party.

The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 road trips, and their most recent game on grass resulted in a 26-20 loss at Tampa Bay on Oct. 16.

Johnson's rejuvenation has coincided with Tennessee covering four of its past six games, including a 2-0-1 mark as an underdog. Bet the Titans, then take the money and run.

If this play implodes, then I'm the knucklehead.

Four more plays for Week 14 (home team in CAPS):

■ REDSKINS (+8) over Patriots: For teaser bettors, New England will be a popular pick. But the Patriots' defense still has problems, so I'll take the points. This is the largest line of the season on a Redskins game. Washington's defense held the Jets and Seahawks to an average of 258 yards the past two weeks. Of course, Tom Brady presents a stiffer test. Redskins quarterback Rex Grossman must be at his best.

■ Falcons (-2½) over PANTHERS: Atlanta looks like a more reliable option with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Since his rookie season in 2008, the Falcons are 16-3 coming off a loss, and they have not dropped back-to-back games this season. Atlanta also has won and covered its past three against Carolina by scores of 31-10, 31-10 and 31-17.

■ 49ers (-3½) over CARDINALS: If in doubt, go with Jim Harbaugh. The 49ers are 10-1-1 ATS under their fiery first-year coach. San Francisco won the first meeting 23-7 on Nov. 20. The series trend points to the 49ers, who have won and covered the past five.

■ Giants (+3½) over COWBOYS: Dallas is 3-9 ATS as a home favorite since last season. The Giants respond well in the 'dog role, and they went toe-to-toe with the Packers. On a four-game losing skid, the Giants' backs are against the wall, and Eli Manning is 5-2 in his past seven games against the Cowboys.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 32-29-4

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at 702-387-2907 or myoumans@reviewjournal.com.