In-running playoff wagering brings out the crazy uncles
May 27, 2011 - 1:08 am
Even with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade on their side, the Miami Heat were all but left for dead, cold as a corpse with the odds stacked high against them.
The Heat trailed by 12 points with 3:53 remaining, but that's when a rather quiet Thursday night of NBA betting was interrupted by a visit from a crazy uncle. Unpredictable insanity turned the Las Vegas Hilton sports book into a carnival atmosphere.
In-running wagering -- a concept in which the point spread, money line and total are adjusted and posted at each timeout -- is a tool every sports bettor should put to use. There might be no better example than the Heat's 83-80 victory over the Chicago Bulls in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference finals.
As an experiment, I made three wagers before the game -- $110 on the Bulls minus-3, $150 on the Bulls minus-150 on the money line and $110 on the total under 180 -- and my plan was to wager more throughout the game.
"The in-running gives people an opportunity to hedge off their bets or try to middle something," said Mark Tomita, a Hilton supervisor who posted the numbers at timeouts. "The in-running, especially with the NBA, is really exciting because there are so many point swings.
"The customers are really having a lot of fun with this."
I was in-running with the Bulls and Heat on this night while looking for the right spots to hedge and middle wagers. I've been getting it wrong too often before NBA playoff games, so this is a way to try to get it right during the games.
The sharpest bettors do this as a habit, and it's becoming more popular with the rest of us. In addition to the Hilton, the Cantor Gaming, Cal Neva and Lucky's books frequently offer in-running wagering lines. The Hilton is also using it for the NHL playoffs and Sunday night baseball games.
"There certainly is a market for it, and I can see it continuing to grow, especially for the major events," Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "It's really catching on. It's something that's going to be here forever."
The momentum swings in most NBA playoff games serve as an ideal in-running wagering test. You must avoid overreactions and learn how to manage your money. Here's how it unfolded with the Bulls and Heat:
■ With 6:07 left in the first quarter, Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau calls timeout with his team trailing 12-6. The Heat are posted as minus-125 favorites and the total is adjusted to 175½.
Thibodeau's timeout proves to be a turning point for Chicago, which takes a 25-21 lead after the quarter. The Bulls are posted as 5-point favorites and minus-250 on the money line, with the Heat at plus-200. The total is boosted to 181½.
Chicago leads 45-38 at halftime, covering as a 2-point favorite on the first-half line as the total stays under 90. I'm confident the Bulls will win and am sticking with my original wagers for now.
■ Miami gains momentum and closes the deficit to 62-57 after the third quarter. The Bulls are 5-point favorites and minus-310 when I hedge and bet $50 on the Heat at plus-240.
■ Derrick Rose hits a 3-pointer and Chicago goes ahead 67-57 with 10:02 left. I place my last bets, for $110 each, on the Heat plus-8 and over 163 to set up two middle opportunities.
■ Ronnie Brewer's 3 with 3:53 left puts the Bulls up 76-64, and this is when the Heat appear dead. The in-running line is posted with the Bulls as 10-point favorites and minus-6,000 (bet $6,000 to win $100.) Miami is plus-2,000.
"The other markets had it up at 25-1 or 30-1 and I knew that was too high," said Tomita, who "took a few" bets on the Heat at 20-1 odds.
James made a 3-pointer with 2:07 left, pulling Miami within 77-72. Chicago still was a minus-1,200 favorite with the Heat at plus-700. I think about betting Miami again at this point, but don't and regret it.
■ Wade converts a four-point play with 1:30 to go, James buries a 3 to tie it at 79 with 1:01 left, and the Bulls go down in a stunning collapse as several bettors in the book act like crazy uncles.
Tomita said the Hilton took a handle of about $25,000 before the game and an additional $18,000 or so with in-running wagers. He said there was a small in-running loss after paying out the Heat 20-1 tickets.
In the end, I lost $10 on the side and $30 on the money line, and won $100 on the total for a net profit of $60. If not for the in-running wagers, I would have lost $160 on the game.
Miami opened as a minus-190 series favorite over the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, which begin Tuesday. The action, aggravation and entertainment resume soon.
As the bettor sitting next to me said, "This is nerve-racking."
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.