Injury to Ravens LB Lewis among reasons to back Bengals

In a street fight, Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis is not a guy to bet against. As tough as he is, though, get him by the toe and maybe he can be taken down.

According to reports, Lewis will miss the Ravens' game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday because of a toe injury. But don't always believe what you read, whether it's an injury report or the picks in this column.

Lewis is loud and obnoxious, but I admire his play because he's a modern-day Dick Butkus, in a mean sort of way. He gives the Baltimore defense a bad attitude in a good way.

Still, the Ravens are as fickle as quarterback Joe Flacco, who comes off as a phony one week and the real deal the next. Flacco was outstanding in two victories over Pittsburgh and awful in losses to Jacksonville, Tennessee and Seattle.

Flacco has completed 54.8 percent of his passes this season with 10 touchdowns. He has been intercepted seven times and sacked 20 times. He's basically an average Joe.

The "Red Rifle" has been more impressive. Bengals rookie Andy Dalton is passing at a higher level, connecting on 60.3 percent of his throws with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Cam Newton has generated a lot of hype, and earned most of it, for his surprisingly strong play for Carolina. But the Panthers are 2-7, and Dalton has slightly better passing numbers than Newton. At this stage, Dalton is the NFL's Rookie of the Year.

The Bengals and Ravens are tied at 6-3, a half-game behind the Steelers in the AFC North. Expect this to be a ground-and-pound division game that Cincinnati keeps close with Dalton's steady hand and running back Cedric Benson's ground work.

Both defenses could be short-handed. The Bengals definitely will miss injured cornerback Leon Hall. The Ravens might be without their emotional leader in Lewis, who has started 57 consecutive games.

Cincinnati is 7-2 against the spread, 4-1 straight up on the road, and its three losses were by a total of 14 points.

I'll take the Bengals, who have covered in three of their past four trips to Baltimore, as 7-point underdogs.

Four more guesses for Week 11 (Home team in CAPS):

■ Bills (+2) over DOLPHINS: Buffalo is beat up on the offensive line and off blowout losses to Dallas and the New York Jets. But I sense the Bills' mini-triplets -- quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, running back Fred Jackson and wide receiver Stevie Johnson -- will find a way to get it done. Miami usually finds ways to lose on its home field, where it has covered six of the past 25 games.

■ REDSKINS (+7½) over Cowboys: By rotating quarterbacks Rex Grossman and John Beck, Washington coach Mike Shanahan basically is rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. The main reason to like the Redskins is they are getting more than a touchdown at home in a rivalry game. Dallas has failed to cover its past four as a road favorite. Washington has covered the past three in this series.

■ BEARS (-3½) over Chargers: The victims on San Diego's hit list -- Denver, Miami, Kansas City and Minnesota -- do not form the league's elite. The Chargers have not won since Oct. 9, and receiver Malcom Floyd, linebacker Shaun Phillips and defensive end Luis Castillo still are out with injuries. Chicago has scored an average of 32.5 points in its past four games.

■ GIANTS (-5) over Eagles: With quarterback Michael Vick's status uncertain because of broken ribs, Philadelphia could turn to Vince Young. The Giants are far from reliable, failing to cover their past three at home, but the Eagles have fallen apart.

Last week: 1-4 against the spread

Season: 25-22-3

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at 702-387-2907 or myoumans@reviewjournal.com.