Irish pieces in place for big season

Right or wrong, one of the most predictable moves of the college football offseason occurred last week when Notre Dame reinstated wide receiver Michael Floyd. It was as close as it gets to a sure thing.

Roosters don't sleep through sunrise, and coaches feeling intense pressure to win don't sit star players, if at all possible. Floyd is a probable first-round NFL draft pick, so he is that good.

He also has been on his best behavior since a March 20 arrest for DUI -- his third alcohol-related offense while in the program -- resulted in a suspension. Fighting Irish coach Brian Kelly is in the business of winning games and helping kids, especially the kids who can help him win the most games.

In just his second year at Notre Dame, Kelly is on the brink of a special season. The puzzle pieces are in place -- the players and the schedule -- for the Irish to top their regular-season win total of 8½ (over minus-130) at Las Vegas sports books. It looks like one of the best win-total bets on the board.

"I like Kelly, he's a hell of a coach, and they are going to win big this year," said Dave Cokin, a veteran Las Vegas handicapper and ESPN Radio host. "I would be very, very surprised if they don't win at least 10 games. I would actually be shocked if they don't get to nine wins.

"I've got to tell you something, if they don't win double figures and get to one of the big bowls, I think it's a huge disappointment. I think Notre Dame literally could win every game."

Kelly is a sharp offensive mind, and although he might not have the ultimate set of tools, he has a lot to work with outside of Floyd. Quarterbacks Dayne Crist and Tommy Rees are each capable of winning a lot of games, a fact proven last season.

Crist could be primed to put up impressive passing numbers. After he went down with a knee injury last year, Rees led Notre Dame to victories in its final four games, including a 33-17 rout of Miami in the Sun Bowl highlighted by Rees' two touchdown passes to Floyd.

The Irish finished 8-5 after a 1-3 start. The defense made significant improvement, and stud linebacker Manti Te'o is back to anchor a solid unit.

But just as important are scheduling dynamics. Notre Dame will be favored in road games at Michigan, Pittsburgh, Purdue and Wake Forest, and most likely will be an underdog only to Stanford and quarterback Andrew Luck on Nov. 26.

The home schedule consists of South Florida, Michigan State, Air Force, Southern California, Navy and Boston College. Plus, the Irish play Maryland in Washington, D.C.

"For once, Notre Dame has got an easy schedule," Cokin said. "There is just not a lot on that schedule that's going to beat them."

Lines for the opening week went up at a few offshore books Friday and most Las Vegas books Saturday. Notre Dame is a 10½-point favorite over South Florida on Sept. 3.

The top game on the rotation could get ugly, with Wisconsin a 35-point home favorite over UNLV on Sept. 1.

But the Rebels are a hot topic locally because of their win total: 3 (under minus-150) at Cantor Gaming books and 2½ (over minus-155) at MGM Resorts. The Las Vegas Hilton opened UNLV at 2½ (over minus-130).

"The Rebels have an ambitious schedule, that's for sure," MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood said. "I think if they get to three wins, they're popping champagne."

UNLV, 2-11 in coach Bobby Hauck's first year, will be a double-digit favorite over Southern Utah on Sept. 24 and potentially an underdog in the other 11 games. But Colorado State at home and New Mexico and Wyoming on the road are definitely winnable games for the Rebels.

"I like the direction the team is going. I like Hauck's style a lot," Cokin said. "But there's almost no way they can get to four wins."

Professional gambler Steve Fezzik (LVAsports.com) said he bet UNLV plus-23½ at UNR on Oct. 8, a line offered at the Hilton. The Rebels will be off a bye week. The Wolf Pack will be off four consecutive road games, including Boise State and Texas Tech the previous two weeks.

"That is a fascinating game. You will never see a better spot for a college football team," Fezzik said. "It's a one-way rivalry and Reno always covers, but they're not going to cover this year."

■ BOTTOM LINES -- Three affordable contests are being offered again by Leroy's sports books. The Pro Football Challenge and College Football Challenge each require a $250 entry fee. The $25 Three 'N Out is an NFL eliminator contest in which entrants pick one side or total per week. Contest rules and book locations are available at Leroys.com. ...

On the high end, Cantor Gaming opened registration for a $10,000 NFL contest. There is a 100 percent payback to the players but no guaranteed minimum. The deadline is 9:30 a.m. Sept. 11. The South Point contest, which had a $2,500 entry fee, is not returning.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.