Lakers not dead yet, perhaps live ‘dogs today

Overcoming substantial odds, Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks rode into Los Angeles and twice beat the Lakers senseless. Even Nowitzki admitted the feat was hard to believe.

The Mavericks, similar to every team opening an NBA playoff series on the road, were hoping just to achieve a split. But now it's the Lakers -- to steal a cliche from a friend -- who appear to have one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel.

So this is when perception and reality get separated. Are the Lakers already flatlined, as Charles Barkley boldly stated Wednesday night, or are they about to show a pulse?

Up 2-0 in the best-of-7 series, Dallas is a 2½-point home favorite today. The perception, for the most part, is the Lakers are live 'dogs, at least in this Game 3 spot.

"I don't think you're going to knock out the two-time defending champions that easy," Las Vegas Hilton sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "As pitiful as the Lakers looked in Game 2, I think you'll see more fight in the next couple games, and I think that will be the consensus with the betting public."

That opinion is reflected in the adjusted series price, which shows the Mavericks as minus-270 favorites. By contrast in the East, the Miami Heat, up 2-0 and hitting the road to Boston, are minus-750 series favorites.

The odds are indicating the Celtics are as cold as a corpse, but the Lakers are not dead yet.

"The Lakers play well on the road, and they have the ability to turn it on and off. The public is going to bet the Lakers," said VegasInsider.com analyst Micah Roberts, who sees "extreme value" in betting Dallas at less than 3-1 odds to win the series.

Roberts also noted only three of 18 teams that lost the first two home games have come back to win a best-of-7 series. But if a fourth team is capable of accomplishing it, it's the Kobe Bryant-led Lakers.

Bruce Marshall, a handicapper for The Gold Sheet and VegasInsider.com, is looking at coach Phil Jackson's playoff history and losing faith in the Lakers.

"Unless the Lakers win the next three games of this series, there is a very good chance they will face a close-out game for the Mavericks at Dallas at some point. In similar scenarios, since the 2002 West finals at Sacramento, on the road with the host team in a close-out situation, Jackson is 0-4," Marshall said. "When the Lakers have exited the playoffs under Jackson, they usually go out with a thud and not even offering a fight. The same might be happening in this series.

"Maybe the Lakers dig in and rally back in this series. If they do, it would be a first under Jackson. History shows that in these rare circumstances, Jackson and the Lakers are more likely to surrender."

Nowitzki has been an unstoppable force, shooting 20-for-38 from the field and averaging 26 points in the first two games. Veteran guards Jason Kidd and Jason Terry are playing with poise under pressure. Dallas has a 12-game point-spread cover streak.

"The Mavs have picked a good time to get hot," Marshall said.

The Lakers, meanwhile, are unraveling. Bryant missed a potential game-winning shot after they blew a 16-point second-half lead in Game 1. Pau Gasol is no longer the top big man in his family. Point guards Derek Fisher and Steve Blake were pathetic in Game 2, when the Lakers scored 13 points in the third quarter.

"The Lakers are being exposed because their reliable scoring options beyond Kobe and maybe Gasol are very erratic," Marshall said. "The outside shooting has been suspect, the bench is not up to past strength, the team generates very few transition buckets, and the Lakers have no matchup for Nowitzki."

Betting on the Lakers today is not a bad move. But the reality is it would be hard to believe if they come back to win the series.

Both teams from last year's NBA Finals are close to buried. I will bet Boston as a 3-point favorite in Game 3, but the Celtics are not a serious threat to win the series.

n BOTTOM LINES -- In the 20-horse Kentucky Derby field, 17 are listed at double-digit odds, so there could be an opportunity to hit a bomb with exacta and trifecta wagers.

"It's actually a great betting race, especially this year, because I think it's going to pay big," said Kornegay, who likes Nehro, the third choice at 6-1 odds.

Dialed In, the 4-1 favorite from the No. 8 post, looks strong. Stay Thirsty, at 20-1 in the No. 4 post, is my dark-horse pick.

But for more reliable handicapping advice, consider attending today's 6 p.m. seminar at the South Point race book with host John Kelly and guests Patrick McQuiggan and Tom Quigley. Their free tips are more likely to pay off.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.