Manning, Broncos right fit in hindsight
With several options and a career-changing decision to make, Peyton Manning made the right call in the face of a recruiting blitz. Looking back, it's no surprise, and this is the time to look back.
Manning could have screwed up during the offseason and signed with Arizona or Tennessee, but he didn't become an elite quarterback by making poor choices. And the same goes for successful NFL franchises.
Everything has fallen into place to make Manning and the Denver Broncos a perfect fit, something that was not so obvious in August. Manning was recovering from a serious neck injury and had lost arm strength. The Broncos ditched the oddly effective quarterback, Tim Tebow, who became a cult figure while leading them to the playoffs.
Several sharp bettors - and some of them won't want to admit it now - were skeptical Denver could win eight games.
"You've got to remember, at the beginning of the year, there were a lot of doubts surrounding Manning," LVH sports book director Jay Kornegay said. "The first half of the schedule the Broncos were looking at was daunting. Nothing looked that great."
It all looks great now. Manning picked up his 30th touchdown pass of the season Thursday, and the Broncos are 10-3 after beating the Oakland Raiders, 26-13. Manning is the leading candidate for Most Valuable Player, and his team is a legitimate Super Bowl threat.
It has helped the Broncos that their competitors in the division have looked like three drunks trying to cross an icy street. San Diego (4-8), Oakland (3-10) and Kansas City (2-10) are a combined 9-28.
"Everyone thought the Chargers, Chiefs and Raiders had a shot to win the division," Kornegay said. "The entire AFC West collapsed around the Broncos, and that made the second half of their schedule much easier than anticipated in August."
Manning signed in mid-March. Cantor Gaming opened regular-season win totals May 23 and set Denver's number at 9½ (under minus-120). Other books, such as the LVH, lined the Broncos' total at 8½ (over minus-140) for most of the summer.
I bet the Broncos over 8½, as stated in an Aug. 3 column, when calling Denver a "9-7 or 10-6 team if Manning stays healthy."
That proved to be a good decision. I did make one poor choice. Here's a look at the other seven documented win-total plays (at the prices bet in July at various Las Vegas books) and how they look heading into Week 14:
■ Buffalo Bills (Over 8, plus-110) - The Bills are 5-7 with St. Louis, Seattle, Miami and the New York Jets left on the schedule. There is a real slim chance to win and a reasonable shot to push this bet, but it looks like a loser.
■ Chicago Bears (Over 9, minus-130) - Three road games (Minnesota, Arizona and Detroit) and a home game with Green Bay remain, but the Bears (8-4) are stumbling and might be lucky to cash at 10-6.
■ Detroit Lions (Under 9, minus-110) - I took a tip from a friend, former Lions radio host Bernie Fratto, on this one, and he deserves the credit. Detroit (4-8) returned to disappointing form by blowing home games to Houston and Indianapolis the past two weeks.
■ Miami Dolphins (Under 7½, minus-160) - With trips to San Francisco and New England still on the schedule, the Dolphins (5-7) look unlikely to finish better than 7-9 after a surprisingly good start.
■ New Orleans Saints (Under 9½, plus-110) - This was an easy decision. After coach Sean Payton was suspended for the season, the Saints (5-7) were faced with overcoming too much turmoil. They did go on an impressive run after going 0-4 out of the gate, but it was way too late.
■ New York Jets (Under 9, minus-145) - As expected when the Jets traded for Tebow, this team turned into a circus sideshow. It's not Tebow's fault, but he hasn't helped. New York (5-7) has four winnable games remaining, yet probably will finish 7-9.
■ Oakland Raiders (Under 7, plus-105) - In hindsight, a lot of bets look obvious. But this was the easiest call of them all. The Raiders hired a rookie coach and figured to continue swimming in a cesspool of incompetence.
I have a shot to hit seven of those eight bets from July but did miss a few opportunities.
Houston (11-1) already has topped its win total of 10, and Philadelphia (3-9) will fall way short of the same win total.
Ironically, the team that dumped Manning to pick up Andrew Luck also made the right decision. The Indianapolis Colts (8-4, win total of 5½) are among the league's biggest overachievers.
Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.
