NFL Forecast: If Favre plays, take Vikings as home favorites over Cowboys

If a topic of conversation gets uncomfortable, smoothly change the subject. Brett Favre made the transition with the media this week by pointing to his painful throwing elbow.

It helped to quiet the former Favre discussion, the one about him texting lewd messages and photos of himself to former New York Jets employee/hostess Jenn Sterger. The NFL's investigative team is looking into that matter.

Favre said his right elbow is such a wreck he would consider sitting a game to rest and thus end his league-record streak of 289 regular-season starts. But the 41-year-old quarterback returned to the Minnesota Vikings' practice Thursday and seems intent on playing Sunday against Dallas.

At this point, Favre's comeback to the Vikings can be considered a fiasco. He has passed for five touchdowns with seven interceptions, and his rating (67.0) is hovering near today's high temperature in Minneapolis.

Minnesota (1-3) is digging a deep hole. Favre has an angry wife at home. He cried in front of his teammates before the Vikings' 29-20 loss to the Jets on Monday, when he threw a late interception that was returned for a touchdown and allowed the Jets to cover the 4-point spread -- and some of us are still angry about that.

The Cowboys (1-3) are no better off. The heat is intense on coach Wade Phillips, who is begging to be fired if he loses this week, and quarterback Tony Romo is seen as a fading star.

Both teams are desperate, and Vikings coach Brad Childress said the more desperate team will win. Minnesota is at home and should be playing with more urgency.

With a win, the Vikings can rally. When injured wideout Sidney Rice returns to line up next to Randy Moss, Percy Harvin and tight end Visanthe Shiancoe, Favre will have ridiculous options.

An improved passing game benefits Adrian Peterson, a battering ram who has 480 yards rushing and averages 5.5 per carry.

Favre is 10-1 at home with the Vikings, who trashed the Cowboys 34-3 on the same field in the playoffs in January.

If Favre is ineffective and backup Tarvaris Jackson plays, this bet loses some value. But I'll try the Vikings as 1½-point favorites.

Four more plays for Week 6 (Home team in CAPS):

■ Ravens (+3) over PATRIOTS: New England's offense is not a lost cause just because Moss is gone. Tom Brady is still throwing passes, and coach Bill Belichick is 5-2 against the spread after a bye. But Baltimore, which whipped the Patriots 33-14 in the playoffs, can run the ball and has a more physical defense.

■ BRONCOS (+3) over Jets: It's a tricky scheduling spot for the Jets. Denver has far too many faults to be a playoff contender, but it has a shot as a home 'dog if Kyle Orton, who has passed for 1,733 yards and eight touchdowns, can beat the Jets' blitzes.

■ Raiders (+6½) over 49ERS: Jason Campbell will start at quarterback for Oakland, which is feeling good for a change after upsetting the self-destructing Chargers. San Francisco (0-5) needs to prove it can win before it deserves to be favored by a touchdown.

■ REDSKINS (+3) over Colts: Peyton Manning is always capable of covering a number. Indianapolis is struggling because of a mediocre offensive line, weak running attack and declining defense. Home underdogs are covering at a 66 percent rate, and Donovan McNabb and the Redskins have delivered twice in the role.

Last week: 1-4 against the spread

Season: 15-9-1

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports writer Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.