Odds against Brady playing in NFL opener; sports books adjust

In this case, which is a mess being played out in the court system, attorneys are the sharpest handicappers. And while a good attorney is not hard to find, it's suddenly hard to find a good one who likes Tom Brady's chances.

We all know never to count him out, that his career has been made on dramatic fourth-quarter comebacks. This, however, is a different type of game.

In most games, Brady is the favorite. When the line is pick'em, as it was in the Super Bowl in February, he's still a good bet. But in this case, after what transpired Tuesday, all the quarterback of the New England Patriots can do is throw a Hail Mary, to frame it in football terms.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell denied an appeal and upheld the four-game suspension he initially handed down to Brady, and for reasons that might confuse those of us who did not attend law school, Goodell and his team of attorneys are probably going to win the Deflate-gate case.

Justin Watkins, of the Atkinson, Watkins & Hoffmann civil litigation law firm in Las Vegas, was asked to put a number on Brady's chances of playing in the NFL season opener Sept. 10. His answer: "I would say less than 25 percent."

Watkins, a graduate of the University of San Diego School of Law, described in detail why Brady is scrambling under pressure and unlikely to escape punishment.

I also checked with an attorney friend who works in Manhattan. He's a Patriots fan and a former sports writer who was wise to change careers. He's counting on Jimmy Garoppolo starting for New England against Pittsburgh on opening night.

"It's not looking good for Brady," the Manhattan attorney said. "I would guess it's about a 15 to 20 percent chance he plays. I don't think it's very likely."

Las Vegas oddsmakers are on the same page. After Brady's suspension was upheld, William Hill sports books lowered the Patriots from 3- to 2 ½-point favorites against the Steelers, and New England's regular-season win total dropped from 10 ½ to 10.

At the Westgate Las Vegas, the Steelers-Patriots line was taken off the board a few weeks ago after two limit bets of $5,000 each were placed on the Patriots at minus-2 ½ and 3.

"If Brady plays, the line goes back to 6 or 6 ½," Westgate oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. "It sounds like he is going to fight it all the way to the point of an injunction."

Still, it's far from a formality that Brady will be successful in getting the injunction, Watkins and the Manhattan attorney explained, and time is expiring on the likelihood of him winning any key decision that would allow him to suit up in Week 1.

With Goodell in the lead role, the NFL has made "a ton of legal blunders" in recent years, Watkins said. Most of us expected this case would be another blunder and Brady's attorneys would find the loophole. But it appears Goodell learned something, either by watching episodes of "Law & Order" or from his own trials and errors.

The NFL fired a surprising pre-emptive strike by filing papers in a Manhattan federal court seeking confirmation of Goodell's suspension. The NFL Players Association wants the case heard in a more friendly Minnesota court.

But Watkins said Brady's attorneys made a "huge blunder" by previously stating their position that any suspension upheld by Goodell was going to be appealed in federal court. The NFLPA showed its hand too soon, and the NFL played its cards right.

"That was the smartest legal move I've seen the NFL make by filing the action in New York court," Watkins said.

To get an injunction, Brady must prove his case has a substantial likelihood of success (which is dubious) and show his career will be irreparably harmed if he is suspended four games (which is his Hail Mary.)

"I don't think he's going to get an injunction, and that's the only way it's going to work," Watkins said. "The odds of getting the suspension reduced or down to zero by a federal judge is less than 10 percent."

This case is no longer about the punishment fitting the alleged crime. A four-game suspension for playing a part in the deflation of footballs is ridiculous, especially considering the random suspensions Goodell has handed down in other more serious cases.

Now, it's about the NFL making a bold stand against Brady's failure to cooperate and blatant interference with the investigation. Brady destroyed his cellphone, an intentional destruction of evidence relevant to the case, and for that he looks guilty. He wants only a fine to clear his name and protect his image, but he's likely getting sacked with a suspension.

It's obvious Goodell, the league's discipline czar and ultimate arbiter of player conduct punishment, has too much power. By hearing appeals of his own rulings, Goodell is in a position of conflict of interest. But the NFLPA is to blame for allowing that in the collective bargaining agreement.

The bottom line for football bettors: Brady now appears unlikely to play in Week 1, when the Patriots will probably remain as 2 ½-point favorites.

But I still like Garoppolo's chances of beating the Steelers.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.