Packers cash futures bet on Rodgers as Favre falters

A major futures wager was placed by the Green Bay Packers 2½ years ago, and the result finally was posted Sunday. Aaron Rodgers, as most of us strongly suspected all along, was the right choice.

Breaking off the relationship with Brett Favre? No regrets.

I never questioned the Packers' quarterback switch. But for some, the lovefest with Favre has lingered through good times -- the Minnesota Vikings' journey to last season's NFC Championship Game -- and bad.

This is rock bottom for Favre, and sweet revenge for Rodgers.

This was Rodgers passing for four touchdowns as the Packers buried and humiliated Favre and the Vikings 31-3 in the Metrodome, where it was quiet enough for a funeral.

The Vikings, at 3-7 and everything but mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, made a $15 million mistake by begging Favre to return this season.

"If Favre's not going to be there next year," MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood asked, "what's the point of playing it out right now?"

Good question, and one being debated now by Favre and everyone else. Two weeks ago, the Packers ended Wade Phillips' coaching career in Dallas. On Sunday, they essentially ended Favre's career and coach Brad Childress' stay in Minnesota.

Who could've predicted this? In early September, professional gambler Steve Fezzik forecasted Favre's demise on these pages, recommending a bet under 9½ regular-season wins and saying, "I'll predict the wheels come off the Vikings.''

Meanwhile, Rodgers and the Packers (7-3) are rolling, and the betting public rode them as 3-point favorites on the worst day of the NFL season for Las Vegas sports books.

The favorites were overdue to bust out, and the waiting ended in Week 11. Favored teams went 9-5 against the spread Sunday.

The Pittsburgh Steelers, 7-point home favorites, easily covered in a 35-3 rout of the Oakland Raiders. The game was marred by poor officiating, but neither that nor the Steelers' blowout should come as a surprise.

The bettors also beat the books by winning with favorites Atlanta, Baltimore, Jacksonville, New Orleans and Philadelphia.

"This is a good week for the players," Rood said. "Parlays and parlay cards are ugly."

Rood and his colleagues are not complaining, because the books were running hot with the NFL for two months, but the Eagles' 27-17 victory over the New York Giants was a significant result that made the day worse for the guys wearing suits and ties.

Rood called it "the perfect storm" scenario. Michael Vick and the Eagles were sky-high after Vick's incredible performance last Monday. The Giants' stock plummeted after they were upset by the Cowboys.

The line opened Eagles minus-3 and the betting public jumped all over the favorite, so much so that another book director said the Giants plus-3½ was his "Game of the Year" in the NFL. Take the points and side with the books, he was saying with supreme confidence.

Philadelphia tried to give it away. The Eagles dropped touchdown passes, had a field-goal attempt blocked and blew a 16-3 lead as Vick started to struggle.

But Philadelphia's LeSean McCoy busted loose for a 50-yard touchdown sprint on fourth-and-1 with 4:25 remaining, Giants quarterback Eli Manning fumbled, and the Eagles' bettors landed on the right side.

The Tom Brady-Peyton Manning duel was similarly crazy. Brady guided New England to a 31-14 lead early in the fourth quarter. The Patriots, who were bet from 3- to 4½-point favorites, seemed to be in command.

Manning, however, passed for two touchdowns in a span of three minutes, 11 seconds, and the Colts lost 31-28 after Manning threw a last-minute interception deep in New England territory.

"We would've been absolutely crushed if the Pats had covered," Rood said.

Underdogs are no longer crushing it at the same outrageous clip, posting an 83-68-6 ATS record through 11 weeks.

Favre, so great for so many years, is no longer a public favorite. He's a legendary boxer who hung around for one fight too many, and it's time to throw in the towel.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.