Patriots dangerous as ‘dogs

A razor-thin line separates the NFL's top teams, but no coach is more cutting edge than Bill Belichick. His game-management decisions and defensive schemes are almost always sharp.

Seldom do you bet on the New England Patriots and second-guess Belichick in frustration after a loss.

That is rare, too, because as bettors we put every coach under a microscope and often shake our heads in disbelief. We scrutinize every detail, from play calls to the throwing of challenge flags to the use of timeouts. Not to give Belichick too much credit, but if you need to win a game, you want him on your side.

He never coaches not to lose -- or too conservatively -- in a league in which too many coach with their tail between their legs.

Nine weeks into the season, it's tough to tell what first-year coach Jim Caldwell adds to the Indianapolis Colts. He has managed to keep a good team going. But we'll probably find out more Sunday.

The Colts are 3-point home favorites over the Patriots in a game that could establish the AFC's pecking order. Indianapolis (8-0) sits at the top, followed by New England (6-2) and Pittsburgh (6-2). The Colts are in command, but a win by the Patriots turns the conference into a free-for-all.

Betting against Peyton Manning, and watching him pick apart a defense with pinpoint throws, is akin to playing Russian roulette. But again this week, I'm taking a shot against Manning.

Point No. 1: Anytime the Patriots are underdogs, and it doesn't happen often, take a hard look. Belichick is 5-2 as a 'dog since the 2006 season.

Point No. 2: Injuries make the Colts vulnerable in the secondary, and inexperienced defensive backs are trouble when Tom Brady is throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker.

Point No. 3: Belichick is 1-4 straight up in the past five in a series he once dominated, and the Colts are riding a 17-game regular-season winning streak. So expect Belichick and Brady to take their best shots.

Belichick should give the Patriots the slightest of edges, and taking the three points seems the right thing to do from a betting perspective.

Four more plays for Week 10 (Home team in CAPS):

• Saints (-131/2) over RAMS: Steven Jackson, tied for third in the league with 784 rushing yards, is St. Louis' only weapon. In a similar situation in Week 7, the Colts won 42-6 as 14-point favorites at St. Louis. The Saints are slowing a little but still should roll by at least 17 points. Double-digit favorites are 22-1 straight up and 13-10 against the spread this season.

• DOLPHINS (-10) over Buccaneers: Miami is No. 4 in the league in rushing offense, and Tampa Bay ranks No. 30 in rushing defense. Bucs rookie quarterback Josh Freeman is making his first road start.

• Chiefs (+2) over RAIDERS: Overwhelming series trends point to a play on Kansas City. The Chiefs have covered the past six and seven of the past eight at Oakland. The road team is 12-0-1 ATS in the past 13. The Raiders are 0-9 in their past nine as home favorites. Despite doing next to nothing offensively, the Raiders won the first meeting 13-10 on Sept. 20.

• Eagles (+11/2) over CHARGERS: San Diego's absence of a running attack means quarterback Philip Rivers will feel the heat from Philadelphia's blitzing defense. Expect the Eagles to respond after a loss, and coach Andy Reid is 10-2 ATS as a road 'dog since 2006.

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

Season: 22-22-1

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.