Quarterbacks will decide it, and I’ll pick Rodgers

By looking at his numbers, which compare favorably to the NFL's other elite quarterbacks, it appears this season has been another smooth ride for Aaron Rodgers. But that's not exactly true.

When the Green Bay Packers first started hitting the road, Rodgers probably felt like he was traveling with John Candy and Steve Martin. The Packers ran into a crew of clumsy replacement refs in Seattle before crossing paths with an inspired Colts team in Indianapolis. There were blown leads and comical misadventures.

While star teammates on both sides of the ball were sidelined by injuries, it was Rodgers who kept Green Bay going. He has completed 67.2 percent of his passes with 27 touchdowns and only six interceptions.

So when the New York media this week asked Rodgers about his early-season slump, he got annoyed and called it irrelevant. Most of the problems the Packers faced on the road seem to be behind them now.

Green Bay (7-3) is riding a five-game winning streak that began Oct. 14 at Houston, where Rodgers passed for six touchdowns in a 42-24 rout of the Texans. That game was on a Sunday night, and so is the Packers' next road test against the Giants.

It could be a meaningless trend, but, for what it's worth, Green Bay owns the best winning percentage (.792, 19-5) in the league on Sunday night, prevailing in six of its past seven appearances in that prime-time spot.

There are a lot of trends, and handicappers can put different spins on them. The Giants can lean on their 4-0 record the week after a bye the past four seasons. In those four wins, Eli Manning passed for 1,290 yards with 10 touchdowns and one interception.

Manning and the Giants, who lost their last two games before the bye to drop to 6-4, needed the week off to regroup.

The Packers defense is missing cornerback Charles Woodson and probably will be without linebacker Clay Matthews, but a showdown between the past two Super Bowl champions will be decided by which quarterback is better in the spotlight.

If the Green Bay offensive line can keep Giants defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora away from Rodgers, who has been sacked 32 times in 10 games, I like the Packers' chances as 3-point underdogs. Rodgers leads the league with a 107.3 passer rating.

Manning is the one who has been slumping lately, and although he burned Green Bay in the playoffs last season, he is 0-3 against the Packers in the regular season. So I'll spin that trend to support the case for the 'dog.

Four more plays for Week 12 (Home team in CAPS):

■ Steelers (-1) over BROWNS: Pittsburgh is down to its third-string quarterback, 38-year-old Charlie Batch. That sounds bad, but Batch is 5-2 as a starter with the Steelers, and he completed 15 of 22 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown in a 27-0 victory over St. Louis in his most recent game last Christmas Eve. What sounds better is that Pittsburgh has won 16 of its past 17 games against Cleveland.

■ BUCCANEERS (+1) over Falcons: Tampa Bay has averaged 34.8 points during its four-game winning streak. Buccaneers quarterback Josh Freeman is in a better rhythm than Matt Ryan, who threw five interceptions last week. Atlanta's recent play has been sloppy, and it lost a similar tossup game at New Orleans two weeks ago.

■ Ravens (-1) over CHARGERS: Joe Flacco or Philip Rivers? Neither option is appealing, so I'll look at the coaches and go with John Harbaugh over Norv Turner. San Diego is 1-5 in its past six games. Turner knows he's done, and nobody knows why he's still there. This also could be a flat spot for the Chargers, still celebrating their dramatic point-spread cover by the hook at Denver last week.

■ 49ers (-1) over SAINTS: San Francisco's Jim Harbaugh is gaining support as the best coach in the league. If that's true, he should be able to beat a team with no real head coach. Drew Brees has the hot hand, and going against New Orleans has been a losing strategy for me, but I'm going to be stubborn and stick with the plan.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Season: 36-19

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.