Smart team, talent add up to smart play

If a formal test existed to measure basketball IQ, Gonzaga senior guard Matt Bouldin would have a shot to ace it. He's a cerebral player who sets the example for a well-coached, well-conceived team.

The Bulldogs are talented and smart. I always put an emphasis on intelligence when judging teams, and this is one that records high scores.

Bouldin is a slick passer with a nose for making the right moves and a knack for knocking down big shots. Add to the equation guard Steven Gray, freshman forward Elias Harris and 7-foot Robert Sacre, and the Zags are a potential monster in March.

A week from today, we'll start filling out NCAA Tournament brackets and forking over $20 for the office pool. It's tough to make predictions without knowing the matchups, but Gonzaga will match up favorably against almost every team in the field.

"If I see a sleeper team that can win it all, it would be Gonzaga," said John Kelly, a sharp college basketball bettor who writes for EOG.com. "Gonzaga is usually the NCAA Tournament darling and falls, with so many disappointments in years' past. But I think this year could be different."

Kelly said the Zags "have a chance to outsmart some opponents," in the postseason, and they continue to outclass the rest of the West Coast Conference.

A friend texted Sunday to ask if I liked Loyola Marymount plus-12½ in the WCC Tournament semifinals at the Orleans Arena.

The reply: I hate to bet against Gonzaga.

If going bald, I wouldn't experiment with spray-on hair. If down to my last few dollars, I wouldn't bet them against the Zags.

Gonzaga (26-5) led by 16 points at halftime and got the win and cover by rolling over the Lions, 77-62.

The Bulldogs will be about 5½-point favorites over St. Mary's in tonight's championship game.

The Gaels were 4½-point favorites in their 69-55 victory over Portland. St. Mary's was blown out by Gonzaga in last year's title game.

"Everyone drools over the first four days of the NCAA Tournament," Kelly said. "Some of the best bets are in these minor tournament games."

Lost in the shuffle will be National Invitation Tournament, the College Basketball Invitational and the CollegeInsider.com tourney. Those games are not as big, but they are just as bettable.

As the conference tournaments unfold this week, great wagering opportunities will be all over the board. Most tournaments are on neutral courts -- the Mountain West at UNLV being an exception -- and upsets will be a common theme.

"The oddsmakers have to post the numbers on the fly, and a lot of times they lean on the power ratings," Kelly said. "Deep teams usually have a nice advantage."

With some teams playing three games in three days, fatigue will be a factor. The Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis will be an interesting case study.

Ohio State, for example, is a team with no bench. As good as Evan Turner is, can he carry the Buckeyes for three straight days?

Purdue, running on fumes without star forward Robbie Hummel, will be a vulnerable favorite.

Illinois (18-13) is a desperate team on the NCAA bubble. But the Illini got whipped 72-57 on their home floor by Wisconsin, a 3-point favorite, on Sunday. The teams meet again Friday.

The Badgers are my sleeper pick to win the Big Ten tourney, which will see some low-scoring games as teams start to tire.

There has been a lot of Pac-10 bashing going on, for good reason, but too many talking heads are predicting just one NCAA bid for the conference. Look for the Pac-10 to get two teams in, with California and Arizona State the favorites, and both teams need strong tournament showings this week.

UCLA (13-17) faces Arizona on Thursday. The Bruins have lost four of their past five games, and coach Ben Howland has a mess on his hands.

"The underachieving teams get a second chance in the conference tournaments," Kelly said. "It's also the last chance to bet against these dead teams. UCLA is a dead team."

This week separates the corpses from the contenders. The smart money is on teams such as Gonzaga, which is alive and well once again.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.