Sports books await clarity on Winston’s status for Irish game

A breaking news flash about Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston could come at any time. It might arrive today or Saturday morning, and it might not show up at all. But bettors and bookmakers are on the lookout around the clock.

This is what happens when the biggest college football game of the weekend is off the board in Las Vegas.

As of Thursday night, Winston’s status was listed as probable for the second-ranked Seminoles’ showdown against No. 5 Notre Dame on Saturday night. At the same time, it’s also probable that Winston will find himself in more trouble, because that’s just how his story goes.

“Florida State’s power rating has dropped a lot,” Golden Nugget sports book director Tony Miller said. “It’s all of this Winston stuff. The off-field distractions with him have to be tough on that team.”

The mystery surrounding Winston has complicated matters for everyone interested in betting the game. If Winston plays, the Seminoles are expected to be around 11-point favorites. If he gets suspended, it could be a 3-point line.

It’s already a game with more lines than a pickup artist at a singles party.

In June, when Miller posted opening college lines at the Golden Nugget, Florida State was a 24-point favorite over the Fighting Irish. The number was quickly bet to 21. In the past few weeks, the look-ahead line at other books varied from 15 to 13½.

Notre Dame is 6-0 and stronger than expected, mostly because quarterback Everett Golson has returned from a one-year academic suspension to perform at the level of a Heisman Trophy candidate.

“Golson has been a real pleasant surprise for the Irish,” Miller said, “and they are way better than we thought.”

As for the Seminoles and their Heisman winner from last year, some slippage was anticipated. I wrote about it in August, predicting a decline for Winston and the defending national champions, and a few Florida State fans sent emails to disagree. But it’s not surprising considering the off-the-field messes Winston tends to create. He can’t see his way out of trouble and refuses to listen to good advice.

First, it was the sexual assault investigation, which is ongoing. Subsequently, he was caught on camera swiping crab legs from a grocery story, suspended for shouting an obscene phrase on campus and now faces possible disciplinary action for signing in the neighborhood of 2,000 autographs that surfaced on an authentication company’s website.

Winston claims he was not paid for the autographs — Todd Gurley, Georgia’s star running back, is sitting out for similar reasons — and Seminoles coach Jimbo Fisher has acted as his defense attorney in the heat of the media spotlight.

Anyone who truly believes Winston was not paid also must be interested in buying some nice beachfront property in Yuma, Ariz. Winston could be suspended before Saturday’s game or at a later date or not all. So we watch and wait.

“He’s going to play in this one,” said Dave Cokin, a Las Vegas handicapper and ESPN Radio host. “Winston is very likely to play. I’m still not seeing where Florida State has played a complete game all season, and there are clearly some major distractions within this program right now.”

The Seminoles are 6-0, so it’s not as if their season has been a wreck. With Winston suspended for the Clemson game on Sept. 20, they were lucky to beat the Tigers 23-17 in overtime. Backup quarterback Sean Maguire was serviceable, but the drop-off from Winston is worth more than a touchdown to the betting line.

“I think I would rather play Florida State minus-3 without Winston than lay 11 points with him,” said Jimmy Vaccaro, oddsmaker at the South Point.

The game remained off the board Thursday, but Vaccaro said he was considering posting the line at 11 and limiting wagers to $1,000.

“I put it up Monday at 11½ and got hit right away,” Miller said.

Cokin (SmokinCokin.com) took plus-12 with Notre Dame, which has a rising power rating. Golson and coach Brian Kelly are unbeaten together in regular-season games, including a perfect run in 2012 before a blowout loss to Alabama in the national title game.

“Florida State is down four points from where I had them at the start of the season, which is a fairly substantial drop. I’ve barely got them ahead of Notre Dame on a neutral,” Cokin said. “While the Irish might be a shade overrated in the polls, they might be undervalued by the bettors as this line is too high even without Florida State’s off-the-field issues. I made the Seminoles minus-8 just on the math.”

Asked if Winston still has any chance of going No. 1 overall in the next NFL Draft, Cokin said, “None. I’m not sure he even goes in the first round at this point.”

At this point, everything about Notre Dame-Florida State is a guessing game.

CLOSING NUMBERS — Texas A&M and UCLA turned out to be terrible plays last week, but I went 5-3 anyway and stand 27-20 for the season. Here are eight plays for today and Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Temple (+7½) over HOUSTON; Eastern Michigan (+15) over MASSACHUSETTS; ARKANSAS (+3½) over Georgia; Washington (+21) over OREGON; BOSTON COLLEGE (+5) over Clemson; Tennessee (+16½) over MISSISSIPPI; Notre Dame (+11) over FLORIDA STATE; SAN DIEGO STATE (-7½) over Hawaii.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.