Stunning reversal for Irish, Trojans

Who gave Brian Kelly a prayer to be in this position? On the first day of September, when Notre Dame opened its season in Ireland, critics questioned if Kelly could coach the Fighting Irish to even eight regular-season wins.

Lane Kiffin was the hotshot coach set to lead Southern California back to glory, and Matt Barkley was the hotshot quarterback destined for greatness.

What we have now is the college football sequel to "Trading Places."

Kiffin is Louis Winthorpe III (Dan Aykroyd in the movie), the snobby commodities broker exiled to the street. Kiffin's team, ranked No. 1 in the preseason, has stunningly plummeted to 7-4.

Kelly is Billy Ray Valentine (Eddie Murphy), the poor street hustler unwittingly promoted into Winthorpe's former job and occupying his former home. Kelly's team, unranked in the preseason, is 11-0 and No. 1.

As for Barkley, he's destined to sit this one out, and that's why the Trojans are underdogs of 5½ to 6 points to the Irish on Saturday in Los Angeles.

"Notre Dame is good, but not that good," said Kenny White, DonBest.com handicapper and former chief oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. "I would much rather see Oregon play Alabama for the championship."

But as luck would have it, the Irish hit the jackpot last weekend. The Ducks lost to Stanford as three-touchdown favorites, Kansas State was ambushed by Baylor, and a spot in the Bowl Championship Series title game is reserved for Notre Dame if it can beat a disappointing USC team led by a backup freshman quarterback.

"There is so much pressure on the Irish, but everybody is going to bet them," White said, referring to Notre Dame's popularity as a public team. But not everyone is betting the favorite, because the line has ticked down from 6½ and briefly hit 7 at MGM Resorts sports books.

The key to the wager and the result will be Max Wittek, the redshirt freshman stepping in for the senior Barkley, who was knocked out of USC's loss to UCLA last week with a shoulder injury. The 6-foot-4-inch Wittek, who followed Barkley as the starter at Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana, Calif., has the tools to be a future star.

"The kid might be able to step in and play a tremendous game," said White, who rates incoming college recruits and put a high rating on Wittek. "One thing that is changing more and more is the freshmen are ready to play college football."

In fact, two of the nation's top quarterbacks this season - Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M and Marcus Mariota at Oregon - also are redshirt freshmen.

Kiffin might be inclined to stay conservative with his play calling, but he needs to go the high risk-high reward route and allow Wittek to air it out to big-play wide receivers Marqise Lee and Robert Woods. That's the only way to attack Notre Dame, which leads the nation in scoring defense at 10.1 points per game.

"He's extremely talented, but he just doesn't have any experience," White said of Wittek. "He's got good size and a great arm, a better arm than Barkley. But he's still a 4½-point drop-off."

White said he made the Trojans 1- to 1½-point favorites with Barkley. White's power-ratings poll for "The Linemakers" at SportingNews.com ranks the Irish No. 9.

An Alabama-Notre Dame matchup for the BCS title could attract the biggest handle in history on a college football game. The line, according to White, figures to favor the Crimson Tide by 7 or 7½ points now.

"But it all depends on how good Notre Dame looks against USC, and what Alabama does against Georgia," White said.

Irish quarterback Everett Golson, also a redshirt freshman, is good. But he's not that good yet. He's supported by solid running backs, Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood, a rock-solid defense and a coach who has been good and lucky this season.

"The Irish just struggle to score, and they have a young QB under a lot of pressure," said White, whose hesitation with the underdog is "how poorly USC has played and how poorly the team is coached."

Notre Dame made great escapes against Purdue (20-17), Michigan (13-6), Stanford (20-13 in overtime), Brigham Young (17-14) and Pittsburgh (29-26 in triple overtime). The path through a perfect season has not always been pretty for Kelly.

Ugly or not, expect another escape against USC. It's not my strongest opinion - that's a tossup between Ohio State and Wyoming - but I'll take the points and project Notre Dame to win by 3.

■ CLOSING NUMBERS - I downplayed last week's plays but still went 5-0. So that makes it 35-11-1 the past nine weeks. Any hot run like this includes some luck, and hopefully the luck keeps running. Eight plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

OHIO STATE (-3½) over Michigan; Georgia Tech (+14½) over GEORGIA; PENN STATE (-3) over Wisconsin; WYOMING (+7½) over San Diego State; OKLAHOMA (-6½) over Oklahoma State; Florida (+7½) over FLORIDA STATE; Louisiana Tech (+4) over SAN JOSE STATE; USC (+6) over Notre Dame.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.