Tebow’s injury makes Gators risky play at Death Valley

Injury reports are not officially issued in college football, but we don't need one to know the status of Florida quarterback Tim Tebow, who suffered his first concussion two weeks ago.

Tebow is questionable to play Saturday at Louisiana State. If he does go, and it's apparently a game-day decision, it's doubtful he'll play with the same reckless abandon of a cage fighter.

So how does Tebow being in limbo impact the biggest game of the week? It could turn a bettor or an oddsmaker into a head case -- or you simply could ignore the temptation of the wager.

The top-ranked Gators are 71/2-point favorites over LSU at Baton Rouge, also known as Death Valley for a reason.

"I made the line 11 with Tebow and 4 without him. Right now it is exactly in between my numbers," Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Ken White said.

The offshore opening line Sunday was 111/2, and White said, "It was immediately bet down to 9."

Playbook.com handicapper Marc Lawrence is siding with LSU, and Lawrence has a set of numbers to help support his case: The Tigers have won 32 consecutive night home games and are 45-4 straight up in night home games this decade.

"That makes for a tough setting for any team," Lawrence said. "Invariably, undefeated teams that open the season 4-0 or better, when they take to the conference road, they take their first defeat. Whether Tebow plays in the game or not, I still think LSU will be psyched to the max, and the opportunity for an upset is there."

White is not a practicing physician, but he has seen athletes in Tebow's position before, and he suspects the Gators could be in trouble even if their star does start.

"I guess the side effects from the first concussion are really difficult to bounce back from, so if Tebow plays he's going to be limited," said White, who likes the game under the total of 451/2. "I think there's only one way to play it, and that's look at the underdog.

"But as a bettor, I would probably stay away from this game. I don't like LSU. I wish Tebow was 100 percent healthy for this game because I think Florida would beat them by three touchdowns."

Florida coach Urban Meyer might need to force sophomore John Brantley into his first career start in front of a hostile crowd partying like it's Mardi Gras. Brantley is talented, but he's a pocket passer, and he could be working with a restricted playbook.

Oklahoma was in a similar predicament last week. The Sooners were without star quarterback Sam Bradford, and Landry Jones made his first road start in a 21-20 loss at Miami.

"Jones struggled at Miami," Lawrence said, "and I could see the same thing happening with Brantley if that ends up being the case."

Every argument has two sides, so it should be pointed out that LSU coach Les Miles was 0-7 against the spread at home last year.

In another Southeastern Conference slugfest, Lawrence said Mississippi is a "potential live home 'dog" against Alabama, which is favored by 41/2 points.

"In that same vein (as Florida), talking about undefeated teams on the road in conference play, I call those 'fat cats,' and you have to put Alabama in the same mix," Lawrence said. "Alabama looks invincible, but sometimes when Superman looks invincible, he gets exposed as Clark Kent."

White has his eyes on another home underdog -- UCLA getting 31/2 points against Oregon. Ducks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli might not start because of a right knee injury.

White said he also would play Idaho (+4) at San Jose State, and Iowa State (+19) at Kansas.

* CLOSING NUMBERS -- After taking a bye last week, here are my top six picks for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

WASHINGTON (+4) over Arizona; Georgia (+11/2) over TENNESSEE; UCLA (+31/2) over Oregon; LSU (+71/2) over Florida; Michigan (+8) over IOWA; Fresno State (-10) over HAWAII.

Contact sports betting reporter/columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@ reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.