To win a Las Vegas football contest, be good and lucky

With the first pick in the 2000 NFL Draft, the Cleveland Browns did not select Tom Brady. That was a lucky break for Brady.

If he had started his career in Cleveland instead of New England, Brady might have disappeared by now. As it is, he’s serving a four-game suspension. But it’s a good bet he would not have won multiple Super Bowls with the Browns. There’s no doubt Brady is good, but in life we all need to catch an important break along the way.

Football handicappers fully understand the luck factor, and if it’s not on your side, you will not win the Westgate SuperContest or any other contest being staged at a Las Vegas sports book this season. You will need to be good and lucky.

The SuperContest is the king of the hill, setting records for entries (1,727) and prize money ($2.59 million) last year, and it’s getting bigger. The rules are simple — pick five NFL sides against the spread each week for 17 weeks — while the route to winning is complex and unpredictable.

“It has a long history and tradition as the most prestigious pro football handicapping contest in the world,” Westgate sports book director Jay Kornegay said. “It has been proven that anybody can win the contest.

“Some people think it’s for sharps only. The last two winners were first-time entrants. Our first female winner was in 2012. Anybody can get on hot streaks. Some people pick from the hip. But I think in the long run, the sharper players do better. The people who spend a lot of time doing research and handicapping will do better over time than the Average Joe.”

Kornegay and his staff host the fifth annual “SuperContest Weekend” on Friday and Saturday at the Westgate. There will be a free football handicapping seminar featuring several top analysts from around the nation, a golf outing and a raffle. Six free contest entries are given away in two days.

Throw down the $1,500 entry fee for the contest or try to win a free one. The Westgate event essentially kicks off the football handicapping season.

All contests are not created equal. There are options for low and high rollers, and for the so-called sharps and squares. Most contests focus on the NFL, but there are a handful that cater to college football bettors.

William Hill sports book director Nick Bogdanovich is hoping to build the biggest college-only contest in town by starting the College Pick’em with a $500 entry fee. Contestants select seven games against the spread for 10 weeks, with $25,000 in cash prizes guaranteed. As of Thursday, there were 37 entrants.

“I think 100 would be a success, but I think we can get to 150,” Bogdanovich said. “We’ll see if it’s successful, and add to it next year. The masses love the NFL. It’s the difference between following 32 teams and 110.”

College contests are always a tougher sell to the public, which is why many have faded away over the years. But most hard-core handicappers prefer to pick their spots on the far more expansive college board.

The Friday Football Showdown at the Golden Nugget — a contest combining college and NFL handicapping — drew 87 entrants at $2,000 each last year. Nugget book director Tony Miller said he had 48 players registered as of Thursday and expects around 150 by the deadline in early September.

Station Casinos offers Last Man Standing contests for college and pro football with entry fees of $25 each.

The most popular contests use the public’s fascination with the NFL as the hook, and there are some low-risk options at Stations, the South Point and Boyd Gaming properties.

Entries at the Westgate surpassed 800 on Thursday, and Kornegay is projecting 1,800 as this year’s goal. The SuperContest, which drew 745 entries in 2012, has experienced a popularity explosion. In the near future, the winner will receive $1 million.

In June, Kornegay announced the contest was shifting from 100 percent payback to an 8 percent takeout. The money being pulled from the prize pool is an administration fee to cover escalating expenses that topped $200,000 last year. The move was somewhat controversial at the time, but the storm seems to have passed.

“A lot of people have said to us, ‘We totally understand,’” Kornegay said. “Right now, we’re about 150 ahead of last year’s record pace, so obviously it has not slowed down. It’s the popularity of betting football.”

The SuperContest offers a shot to win big money and gain a little fame.

It will take some luck to win it.

Sixteen years ago, the Patriots drafted Brady in the sixth round, and his fall was a fortunate break for both sides.

Cleveland used the No. 1 pick on defensive end Courtney Brown, who disappeared long ago. The Browns, like some gamblers, walk around unlucky.

Las Vegas Review-Journal sports betting columnist Matt Youmans can be reached at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts “The Las Vegas Sportsline” weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM). Follow on Twitter: @mattyoumans247