Trojans should put scare into Ducks

Posting random thoughts on Facebook or Twitter can be risky business for college athletes. A dumb comment might result in a suspension. A comment by Southern California quarterback Matt Barkley triggered a mini media frenzy.

Barkley said he was "fired up" last weekend after watching Cain Velasquez upset Brock Lesnar at UFC 121, so Barkley jumped on Twitter and wrote: "Wow, Brock just got rocked! Lesnar is to Oregon as Velasquez is to SC."

Barkley's innocent analogy made him an instant villain to some Oregon fans, and the media quizzed the quarterback to create something out of a nonstory.

"It had to do with kind of being an underdog in a big fight," Barkley said. "Everyone, of course, takes it out of context and blows it up."

Here's the story: The Trojans are home underdogs for the first time in 51 games since 2001, and the Ducks are ranked No. 1.

Following upsets of Oklahoma, Ohio State and Alabama, will Oregon be the next top-ranked team to fall?

Don't expect the Trojans to punish the Ducks as Velasquez did Lesnar inside a cage, but USC as a 7-point underdog Saturday looks pretty good to me.

"I fully expect USC to be in the game until the final bell," Cal Neva sports book director Nick Bogdanovich said. "I think Oregon will be life and death to get out of the Coliseum."

I bet against the Ducks once this season and the ticket ended up in the trash after they rolled over Stanford, 52-31. Oregon is 7-0 and 5-2 against the spread.

The total Saturday is 70½ in a matchup that has fast-break football written all over it. Barkley can wing it for the Trojans, who have scored 31 points or more in six of seven games.

But that's small ball compared to Oregon's spread-option, which leads the nation in total offense (569 yards per game) and scoring (55.1 points). Running back LaMichael James is a lightning bolt -- especially in a yellow jersey -- and Darron Thomas is a typical Ducks quarterback.

Barkley is a much better passer than Thomas. But the problem for USC is a defense that allows 402.6 yards and 24.3 points per game.

"Oregon is unbelievably explosive," Bogdanovich said, hitting on the main reason it's so dangerous to bet against the Ducks. "I see both teams going up and down the field. I would not be surprised if it flew over the total."

The Trojans are 5-2 after losing to Stanford and Washington on last-minute field goals.

If they survive this test, the Ducks should walk over the rest of their Pac-10 Conference opponents and land in the Bowl Championship Scam title game.

Oregon is one of seven undefeated teams remaining, and two others will lose on the road this week. Look for Michigan State (8-0) to fall at Iowa and for Missouri (7-0) to fall at Nebraska. Another unbeaten team will be subtracted after Utah (7-0) hosts Texas Christian (8-0) on Nov. 6 in the Mountain West.

It's reasonable to expect Alabama (7-1) to get one BCS championship spot if the Crimson Tide rolls by Auburn (8-0) and wins the Southeastern Conference. Boise State (7-0) still has two hurdles to clear -- Hawaii and UNR -- before its fate is decided.

"I know Boise is as good as anyone, and that I can guarantee you," Bogdanovich said. "I'm just hoping Boise, TCU or Utah gets a shot. Who's to say that Utah is not the best team in the country? I'm just hoping for losses so those teams don't get screwed."

Oregon-USC is an intriguing game for many reasons.

It certainly overshadows San Jose State (1-7) at New Mexico State (1-6), the equivalent of the Harry Reid-Sharron Angle matchup. Both sides look bad, but which is worse?

■ CLOSING NUMBERS -- A 3-5 record last week dropped my handicapping back to .500 for the season (28-28-3). Here are 10 plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

Northwestern (-3) over INDIANA; TEXAS (-7½) over Baylor; Stanford (-7) over WASHINGTON; Florida (+2½) over Georgia; KANSAS STATE (+5) over Oklahoma State; OREGON STATE (-2½) over California; Utah (-7) over AIR FORCE; Michigan (-2½) over PENN STATE; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (+7) over Oregon; HAWAII (-14½) over Idaho.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts the "Las Vegas Sportsline" weeknights at midnight on KDWN-AM (720) and thelasvegassportsline.com.