Villains, not nice guys, will lure UFC bettors

Booed when he made his debut in the Ultimate Fighting Championship more than two years ago, Brock Lesnar embraced the role of the bad guy. The heavyweight brawler has been crude, rude and obnoxious, and I respect those qualities in him.

In movies and sports, villains are compelling attractions. In many ways, Lesnar is the Darth Vader or Hannibal Lecter of the UFC.

Nothing against Georges St. Pierre, a fan favorite who never says anything inflammatory, but the Mr. Nice Guy act can get boring.

Dana White is the outspoken face of the UFC as its president. He turned the organization into a global giant. But what he needs to keep it rolling is a pay-per-view gorilla, and that can be Lesnar.

"There's got to be some guys that step up who people hate," said Steve Cofield, a local ESPN Radio host who also writes the "Cagewriter" blog for Yahoo! Sports.

Cofield was referring to Lesnar, who will oppose Shane Carwin in the main event of UFC 116 on Saturday at MGM Grand Garden. Lesnar is the star of the show and the favorite at minus-150.

We last saw Lesnar fight last July at UFC 100 in Las Vegas. He talked trash to Frank Mir, dominated him, flipped off the crowd and announced he was going home to "get on top of my wife." He was booed for that. But his theatrics had everyone talking, a good thing for the UFC in the big picture.

This is the biggest UFC fight of the year. For hardcore fight fans, it might be the equivalent of the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game, which turned out more entertaining than the Super Bowl.

But for all the progress the UFC has made, it's still not mainstream enough to pack a punch at sports books. Mixed martial arts accounts for about 1 percent of Nevada's annual sports handle.

In terms of betting, the UFC is nowhere close to challenging the NFL or even baseball. Few oddsmakers know anything about the fighters and you rarely hear handicappers touting UFC plays.

The Venetian sports book, where Rob Akers is a sharp MMA oddsmaker, and M Resort do the best job of offering all the fight lines and some propositions.

Boxing is now a lame one-trick pony, but if Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao fight in November, the wagering they draw will dwarf Saturday's 11-fight UFC card.

That's one reason Lesnar is important. Everyone who follows the UFC has an opinion on him, opinions often become bets and betting boosts the popularity of every sport.

Carwin is a dangerous man with one-punch knockout power. He has 12 first-round wins in 12 fights. The early money has been on Carwin after Lesnar opened as more than a 2-1 favorite.

Lesnar, who quickly transitioned from the scripted arena of World Wrestling Entertainment to the real world of guillotine chokes, kneebar submissions and bloody slugfests, is coming back from a bout with diverticulitis that threatened his career.

"For a guy who has basically destroyed everybody, minus-150 is not that bad," Cofield said of Lesnar (4-1). "I've got to see the guy who can get in with Lesnar and physically match him. I've got to see it to believe it. I think the odds are small enough you have to bet Lesnar."

The layoff could hurt, but Cofield predicts Lesnar will "come back even better" than last year. The 6-foot-3-inch, 265-pounder, who was a minus-220 favorite over Mir, has developed better jabs and kicks and has trained with legend Randy Couture.

Upsets are commonplace in the UFC. Cofield is touting two underdogs on the card -- Chris Leben (plus-170) over Yoshihiro Akiyama and Jon Madsen (+150) over Karlos Vemola.

Leben is a late replacement for Wanderlei Silva. Akiyama has not fought since UFC 100. (And the average sports fan would have no clue that either of those statements is true.)

"It's a bizarre situation because Leben is bouncing back 12 days after his previous fight," Cofield said. "But it's going to be a stand-up fight, which is Leben's style."

The UFC has recognized names. Rashad Evans, Quinton "Rampage" Jackson, B.J. Penn, Anderson Silva, Matt Hughes, Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and St. Pierre can sell fights. But Chuck "The Iceman" Liddell, the biggest attraction for years, is all but history, Ken Shamrock and Tito Ortiz are off the radar and Couture is 45 and fading away.

There is talk about Lesnar maybe getting friendlier and toning down his act. That would be a disappointment, because he fills a void as a big-time villain who inspires UFC followers to bet one way or the other.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.