Wagerers not banking on Super encore by Saints

After the party, the hangover usually brings a headache, and in the NFL the pain can be severe and linger for a year. The New Orleans Saints and their hero quarterback, Drew Brees, might wake up to that reality.

The underdog Saints won the Super Bowl and stormed Bourbon Street. Brees wrote a book and worked the talk-show circuit. It all made for a sensational story.

But it's August, the party's over and the Saints are a "dead issue," in the words of Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books.

Few bettors are biting on the Saints at about 8-1 odds to win the title, and their regular-season win total of 10½ is partly a reflection of their more demanding schedule.

"We're not taking any bets on the Saints. Whether the theory holds true or not, even the squares are betting against the team that won the Super Bowl. It's just hard to repeat," Vaccaro said. "I'm not high on the Saints. I think I've got them fifth to win it all, and I'm thinking about jacking it up a little higher."

Nobody outside of New Orleans was talking about the Saints as training camps opened. The Super Bowl hangover is the primary reason. In the past 10 years, only the New England Patriots (2005) pulled off a repeat. In no way is it an easy journey.

It's not much different from a wedding. Offer your friend congratulations, tell him to enjoy the honeymoon and issue a stern warning about the potentially slippery slope ahead.

The Saints will reach the playoffs, Vaccaro predicted, and almost all of us would agree. Sean Payton is a bright coach who returns his entire offense. Brees is a motivator and a leader. The defense should be better thanks to wise moves in free agency and the draft.

Yet as NFL bettors we're always looking for the next hot model, and the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets are winning the preseason swimsuit competition at Las Vegas sports books.

Vaccaro said the Cowboys (8-1), Jets (10-1) and Baltimore Ravens (12-1) are drawing the most Super Bowl win tickets.

The preseason opens Sunday with Dallas a 2½-point underdog to the Cincinnati Bengals in the Hall of Fame Game, and that leads to some of the league's hottest storylines:

■ Can quarterback Tony Romo, who finally has a postseason win on his resume, lead the Cowboys to the Super Bowl? Dallas could be the first team to host the game and play in it.

■ Carson Palmer has his hands full. The Bengals quarterback has two clown receivers, Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, and he must find ways to keep both happy.

■ Jets coach Rex Ryan has the New York media firmly in his corner. But star cornerback Darrelle Revis is staging a contract holdout.

■ The Steelers will start the season without Ben Roethlisberger, who has been suspended six games for bad behavior. Expect commissioner Roger Goodell to reduce the quarterback's suspension to four games.

■ Two veterans -- coach Mike Shanahan and quarterback Donovan McNabb -- take control in Washington. The Redskins' biggest problem is overpaid, overweight defensive lineman Albert Haynesworth.

And don't forget about Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Brett Favre. I purposely saved the Favre issue for last because, though it's an important story, it's a tired one.

Several sports books overreacted to ESPN's irresponsible reporting Tuesday and took the bait that the Minnesota Vikings' 40-year-old quarterback really was retiring. How many times can Favre fool you?

The odds on the Vikings to win the Super Bowl jumped from 7-1 to 20-1 at some books, and Minnesota's regular-season win total was lowered. The knee-jerk adjustments were mostly corrected by Wednesday, and now it's a wait-and-see game on the Vikings' numbers.

"I changed nothing," Vaccaro said. "I said, 'We'll leave everything as it is.' Everything remains the same until you really know something. If you really guess wrong, you don't want to give someone 30-1 on the Vikings if the knucklehead plays."

The line on the Sept. 9 season opener did change. The Saints moved from 4-point to 6-point home favorites over the Vikings.

"That's an easy one to adjust. I don't want to take that game down," Vaccaro said. "Everyone else went to 6. I wasn't going to give anyone a free (bet) to lay the 4½ and take 6."

Vaccaro added, "I would like to see the kid come back."

More Favre would be good for the NFL. He would make Minnesota a serious contender, adding one more potential pitfall in the Saints' path back to the Super Bowl.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.