With Pats desperate for win, I want Belichick on my side

Preparation is a key to success, as is surrounding yourself with good people. That's why this is a good week to saddle up next to Bill Belichick, because no NFL coach spends more time preparing a game plan.

There is no way to prove that latter statement as fact, but it's an educated guess based on observations and several seasons of results. The New England Patriots always appear well prepared and rarely disappoint.

But Belichick is disappointed this week, burning from back-to-back losses, and that's bad news for the Buffalo Bills, who are catching the wrong opponent at the wrong time.

Belichick was asked if he watched the end of the Green Bay-Seattle debacle on Monday, and his response tells it all. "Not really," he said. "I've just been focusing on Buffalo."

The Patriots are 1-2, with a two-point loss to Arizona and a one-point loss to Baltimore, and Belichick's defense is mostly to blame after allowing 503 total yards to the Ravens. So he has spent all week studying film of Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has a popgun arm and is not a tough puzzle to solve.

Fitzpatrick did outduel Tom Brady and get the best of Belichick on one occasion last year, but that was a rare exception in a series New England rules.

Belichick is 21-3 against the Bills as the Patriots' coach, winning 16 of the past 17 while posting an 11-5-1 record against the spread.

New England's loss at Baltimore stopped its streak of 145 consecutive games with a .500 or better winning percentage, the longest streak in NFL history. A streak like that is put together because a coach always has his team ready for everything - everything except the New York Giants.

But Tom Coughlin will not be on the opposite sideline Sunday in Buffalo. Belichick's tiny obstacle is Bills coach Chan Gailey, who is 2-11 against division opponents and 1-5 at home.

At full strength, Buffalo might have a shot. But it has two hobbled running backs, C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson, and only Jackson seems likely to play. That won't be enough against a motivated New England defense.

The last time Brady and Belichick lost back-to-back games, they responded by going to New York and blowing out the Jets by 21. So I'll side with the Patriots as 3½-point favorites in a game they are desperate to win.

Four more plays for Week 4 (Home team in CAPS):

■ 49ers (-4) over JETS: Jim Harbaugh is another good coach off a bad loss, and you can bet he's not taking San Francisco's first setback with a smile. Harbaugh is 14-6-1 ATS with the 49ers, who are far superior to the Jets on both sides of the ball. Darrelle Revis will be missed on a Jets defense that can't stop the run, and Mark Sanchez is not much of a passer. It will be a surprise if the 49ers don't roll by double digits.

■ RAMS (+3) over Seahawks: I'm going to trust St. Louis coach Jeff Fisher in this spot, and hope it's a letdown spot for Seattle. All trends point to the Seahawks, who have won 13 of the past 14 in this series. Seattle has allowed the fewest points (39) in the league through three games. But Fisher got the job done as a home 'dog against Washington.

■ PACKERS (-7½) over Saints: Can the Green Bay players forget the fiasco in Seattle and focus on an opponent that's angry and embarrassed to be 0-3? That's a concern. But New Orleans is in disarray defensively, and Drew Brees' offense is out of sync. Aaron Rodgers is due for a big game, and the Packers, 12-4 ATS in their past 16 at Lambeau Field, need a feel-good blowout.

■ COWBOYS (-3½) over Bears: This is a bet against Jay Cutler, who was sacked seven times and intercepted four times in Chicago's loss at Green Bay two weeks ago. Cutler plays his worst in prime-time games. The Dallas offense is due to bust loose. I don't like laying points with the Cowboys, who are 5-12 ATS in their past 17 at home, but finding five strong plays this week is tougher than a $2 steak.

Last week: 3-2 against the spread

Season: 11-4

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.