WVU QB Smith almost too hot to touch

Sooner or later, West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith will make a mistake, and it might even cost his team a game. But lately, he's had a hotter hand than a guy struck by lightning, and we're about to see if Smith can strike twice in Texas in two weeks.

Handicapping is about picking the right spots. Nobody walks through a buffet and eats everything on display. When there are 50 or so college football games on the Saturday betting board, you don't play them all. Pick the five or 10 best and throw out the rest.

At the LVH handicapping seminar in August, I touted the Mountaineers as my sleeper team capable of winning the Big 12 Conference, mostly because Smith was leading what could be the nation's most explosive offense.

Smith has not been good, he's been phenomenal while completing 81.4 percent of his 204 passes for 1,996 yards and 24 touchdowns with no interceptions. He's probably about to break one of Johnny Unitas' old records.

Last week, Smith led the Mountaineers deep into the heart of Texas and upset the Longhorns. This week, he will fly into a little airport by a cornfield in Lubbock and try to beat Texas Tech, which is a 3½- to 4-point underdog.

"It's a difficult spot for West Virginia. I know it's tough for a team to go on the road two weeks in a row like this," VegasInsider.com handicapper Brian Edwards said. "I don't see Texas Tech's defense preventing Smith from getting 48 to 55 points. I just think West Virginia will get it done because its offense will be too much for them."

Edwards said he likes the Mountaineers to cover the small number. I like them, too, but the spot is too hot. I have not bet West Virginia yet this week, and probably will pass. There are plenty of other options on the buffet.

There is no bigger game on the board than South Carolina-Louisiana State, and that makes sense because the Southeastern Conference seems to stage the biggest ones each week.

With a defense that resembled the 1985 Chicago Bears, the Gamecocks crushed Georgia 35-7 last week. Meanwhile, LSU got swamped at Florida, and that was no surprise to me because I pegged the Tigers as overvalued from the start.

But this is a night game in Death Valley, where visiting teams rarely escape alive, and South Carolina will be challenged to stay on the same emotional high. Two weeks ago, LSU was an 11-point favorite in this game, and a week ago the line was 9.

"Now at 3, I feel like a lot of the value on South Carolina has been sucked out, so it didn't make the cut for me," Edwards said. "I just don't see LSU producing much offense. With a gun to my head, I think South Carolina is going to win."

Gamecocks coach Steve Spurrier is going through an image makeover this season. He's no longer the pass-happy offensive mad scientist. This South Carolina team is built around a fast, aggressive defense, and end Jadeveon Clowney is one of the best pass-rushing prospects in years.

"Clowney is going to be Lawrence Taylor in the NFL," Edwards said. "South Carolina looks every bit the part of a national title contender."

The underdog Gamecocks are the better team, but they're also in a hot spot. If you hear or use the "gun to my head" line when predicting a game, it's probably wise to pass and not sweat the trigger getting pulled.

Edwards is 20-7 against the spread in his Saturday college column in the Review-Journal, so he's almost as hot as Geno Smith.

After going 6-0 last week, I'm 14-2 the past three weeks, and I'm not that great, so maybe this is your spot to bet against me. But I'll try to keep a good run going, and here are my top plays for Saturday (home team in CAPS):

■ Wisconsin (+2) over PURDUE - The Badgers are just not that good, but they are better with Joel Stave at quarterback. The Boilermakers have three quarterbacks, but the worst of the three has been starting, and their offense was exposed in a 31-point loss to Michigan. Wisconsin should win by a field goal.

■ WASHINGTON (+13) over Southern California - A week after getting blown out at Oregon, the Huskies are in an attractive spot as home 'dogs. Steve Sarkisian has a coaching edge over Lane Kiffin. The Washington defense is strong against the pass, and it will need to be against Matt Barkley. The Huskies, led by quarterback Keith Price and running back Bishop Sankey, can score enough to keep pace and cover.

■ Oregon State (+5½) over BRIGHAM YOUNG - With starting quarterback Sean Mannion injured, the Beavers turn to Cody Vaz. But Vaz is a competent passer, and the BYU offense has been incompetent. The Cougars were held to six points against Boise State and Utah State, so take the points with an Oregon State team that is 2-0 on the road.

■ WASHINGTON STATE (+7) over California - Mike Leach's offense has been much ado about nothing, sort of like a Joe Biden-Paul Ryan debate. But the Cougars are due to break through, and laying points on the road with the Golden Bears is as dangerous as feeding a bear.

■ Colorado State (+22) over SAN DIEGO STATE - The Rams are not showing much improvement under first-year coach Jim McElwain, but I have a hunch they are about to show something. McElwain, the offensive coordinator for Nick Saban on Alabama's national championship team last year, is pushing his team hard to turn the corner. The Aztecs are an average team, and this line is too high.

■ LOUISIANA TECH (+7½) over Texas A&M - With LSU up next, the Aggies might get caught looking ahead. The Bulldogs are riding a 12-game winning streak, and their quarterback, Colby Cameron, is leading a West Virginia-like offense.

Contact sports betting columnist Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907. He co-hosts "The Las Vegas Sportsline" weekdays at 2 p.m. on ESPN Radio (1100 AM, 98.9 FM). Follow him on Twitter: @mattyoumans247.