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Belmont Stakes has heavy favorite, but may be bettable anyway

Updated June 18, 2020 - 6:07 pm

On the surface, the 153rd running of the Belmont Stakes on Saturday doesn’t look like a great betting race, with Tiz the Law a heavy and deserving favorite. But there are some unique circumstances at play that could make it a better investment opportunity than first glance would suggest.

In a typical year — which this is anything but with the $1 million Belmont leading off the Triple Crown series — the race draws both battle-tested warriors who advanced through the top 3-year-old stakes and at least one of the two preceding Triple Crown races, as well as a few improving newcomers looking to break into the top echelon of the division. In either case, they almost certainly have had at least a few recent races to prepare for the marathon 1½-mile distance.

This year’s running, however, is being contested at the less demanding 1⅛-mile distance and will feature four horses that be racing off layoffs ranging from a couple months to more than five in the case of Max Player, winner of the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in early February in his last start.

That group includes Tiz the Law, whose last race came on March 28 at Gulfstream Park, meaning he will not have run in 84 days or nearly three months when he steps into the Belmont Park starting gate.

That’s not an inordinately long layoff, and good trainers like Barclay Tagg can adjust for the time off through their training regimens. But neither is it how you would draw it up if you were pointing for the race, as training up to a run adds the possibility that one poor or misjudged workout could mess up an otherwise well-laid plan.

Will it even matter if Tiz the Law, a son of Constitution, is slightly less than 100 percent, given how easily he handled the competition in his first two races of the year?

The answer is probably not. All signs appear to be pointing to another win that will cement his status as the division leader. But I think that the horses with some recent racing under their girths could hold the key to a decent payoff in the exotics. Read on to see my thoughts on betting the race and find out what the #RJhorseracing handicappers are thinking.

Tune in to Royal Ascot

If you are an early riser and enjoy watching some of the best racing in the world from the comfort of home, I’d recommend tuning in to the NBC Sports Network Friday and Saturday for daily coverage of the Royal Ascot meeting from Britain.

NBCSN is airing the races on Friday from 5:30 a.m. ET to 9 a.m. ET and on Saturday on the main NBC Network and will livestream them both days on the NBC Sports app and on NBCSports.com.

#RJhorseracing featured races

The #RJhorseracing handicappers and yours truly are tackling the Belmont, as well as the 11th on Saturday’s card — a 1⅛-mile turf allowance race for nonwinners of $10,000 three times or entered for an optional claiming tag of $80,000, ages 4 and up.

In the Belmont, the handicapping crew is nearly united in backing Tiz the Law, the even-money favorite who is likely to head lower from there. They see Sole Volante (9-2) and Pneumatic (8-1) to place and show, respectively.

I can’t find any holes in Tiz the Law’s resume and will pick him on top. I’ll try to add some value by using some of those recently raced horses in the underneath slots: Tap It to Win (6-1) and Dr Post (5-1). On betting tickets, I’ll play some trifectas and include Pneumatic in that second tier.

I’m going to steer clear of the deep closers — Sole Volante and Farmington Road (15-1) — given that Belmont Park’s track has been notably speed favoring, but will use them in the third slot, along with Max Player and Modernist, both 15-1 on the morning line.

In the 11th race, the crowd ‘cappers are streaking down the sideline with Largent, the 5-2 morning line favorite, filling out their top three with Digital Age (3-1) and Pillar Mountain (8-1).

I think this race is more wide open than the oddsmaker, so I’m going to swing for a better payday with Red Right Hand (15-1), the other speed horse in the field besides Largent. I’ll use Digital Age to place and Monarch’s Glen (10-1) to fill out the top placings.

Mike Brunker’s horse racing column appears Fridays. He can be reached at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.

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