Lecomte Stakes unbettable in Nevada, but worth watching
If it’s January and the smells of gumbo and boiling shrimp are in the air, it can only mean one thing: The Lecomte Stakes is here and the journey to the Kentucky Derby has truly begun.
Saturday’s Lecomte at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans is hardly the most prestigious prep race on the road to Louisville, with a relatively modest purse of $200,000. And as one of the first stakes of the year for 3-year-olds at a route distance, it tends not to draw the crème de la crème, as many serious contenders for the Run to the Roses remain on the sidelines until March at least.
But the field of 11 assembled for the 1 1/16th mile Grade 3 affair has plenty of intrigue, with a possibly vulnerable favorite and some other horses that look like they may be ready to take a big step forward.
Unfortunately, the contract dispute between the Nevada Parimutuel Association and Churchill Downs Inc., owner of the Fair Grounds, remains unresolved, so punters in the Silver State will have to be satisfied with watching the race on Fox Sports 1 from 3-4 p.m. PT, with bonus coverage of the preceding Silverbulletday Stakes for 3-year-old fillies.
There’s lots to like about 3-1 morning line favorite Mandaloun, a Juddmonte Farms homebred trained by Brad Cox.
The son of Into Mischief out of an Empire Maker mare is two for two in his brief career and is bred to handle the added distance as he makes his first start around two turns. His off-the-pace running style also fits a race with multiple horses with sprinters’ speed.
(The story will write itself if he wins, after the death this weekend of Prince Khalid bin Abdullah Al Saud, a member of the Saudi royal family and the founder of Juddmonte.)
But there are at least a couple reasons to suspect Mandaloun could be vulnerable:
First and foremost the colt is making his first attempt at two turns. Yes, I remember writing a few sentences ago that he was bred to go long, but until he’s done it, that’s all “conjecture and conjuring.”
He also drew post 10, making a wide trip possible at a distance where the first turn comes at you quick.
Finally there’s the strategic question: If his connections really think he’s a serious Kentucky Derby horse, why is he running through the dead of winter?
My conclusion is that he’s likely to be a very nice horse, but one who shouldn’t be played at the expected short price in these circumstances, at least not in straight bets:
Three other horses interest me more:
— No. 1 Midnight Bourbon, the 7-2 second choice on the morning line: Winchell Thoroughbreds shelled out $525,000 for this son of Tiznow at Keeneland’s September 2019 sale and gave him to Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. With Florent Geroux in the saddle, he’s tough to leave out of the exotics.
— No. 2 Arabian Prince, 6-1: The colt ran a credible third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28 when wide much of the way and in a crowd in upper stretch. Trainer Dallas Stewart has won the Lecomte twice, though the last time was in 2005.
— No. 7 Santa Cruiser, 6-1, just broke his maiden, but I like the path of steady improvement that trainer Keith Desormeaux has him on. The son of Dialed in has turned in four steady works over the track since mid-December.
Mike Brunker’s horse racing column appears Fridays. He can be reached at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr's Lecomte Stakes analysis
I'm going to start my list of horses I think can win the Lecomte Stakes with Regular Guy. This colt didn't run well at all in his first two starts, both sprints and both last summer, finishing ninth then sixth. Given two months off to mature and stretching out to a mile, Regular Guy finished second behind Santa Cruiser (who is also entered here) and earned a stellar 96 Equibase Speed Figure, the second best figure earned by any horse in this field. Making his first start at Fair Grounds and first start around two-turns four weeks ago, Regular Guy didn't run as fast but he won fairly easily in a field of nine. Besides logical improvement in his second two-turn race and second at the meeting, Regular Guy also put in a very strong 5 furlong workout in 100.4 which was the third best of 37 on the day and that total likely included a number of older and more seasoned horses. Even better, Regular Guy has the breeding to be something special as a STATS Race Lens pedigree query yields his dam (the Unbridled's Song mare Rebridled Dreams) has produced two exceptional 3-year-olds in her short career as a broodmare. One was Farrell, who earned over $1 million and won the 2017 Fair Grounds Oaks, and the other was Carpe Diem, winner of $1.5 million including the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes in 2014. As such, I expect Regular Guy to take a big step forward just as his siblings did during their 3-year-old campaigns and post the upset win in this year's Lecomte Stakes.
Santa Cruiser hasn't been seen since winning at a mile in November and beating Regular Guy by a length and one-half. That effort earned a 98 figure which is the best earned by any horse in the field. I don't think the time off is of any concern particularly as Santa Cruiser has put in three straight workouts at Fair Grounds in preparation for this race. Trainer Keith Desormeaux (who also saddles Dyn O Mite) has had his share of success on the "Road to the Derby," sometimes at high odds (Sonneteer at 99/1 in the 2017 Rebel Stakes). Therefore if Desormeaux thinks Santa Cruiser is ready for this level of competition, I must give Santa Cruiser a strong look as a contender in this race.
Mandaloun is two-for-two in his career to date, winning with a nice rally from ninth in his debut in October then improving to win a first level allowance race at seven furlongs in late November. Improving to a 94 figure with that win, the third best figure in the field, Mandaloun is on a pattern for even better in the Lecomte provided he runs as well in his first route. That shouldn't be an issue as a son of Into Mischief, who has produced some top 3-year-olds in recent years, including Authentic, Audible and Owendale. Trainer Brad Cox is already off to a sparkling start at the Fair Grounds meeting, winning 24 percent (13 of 55) of his races through last weekend, and the jockey Florent Geroux rides Mandaloun again after being aboard for his first two wins.
Midnight Bourbon, like Santa Cruiser, has "Road to the Derby" breeding to go along with stakes quality form. His dam, the Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon, produced 2015 Iroquois Stakes winner Cocked and Loaded as well as one of the top 3-year-olds in 2017, Girvin, who won the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby leading to $1.6 million in career earnings. Midnight Bourbon finished second in last year's Iroquois Stakes after making the lead and opening up with an eighth of a mile to go, earning a 91 figure which, if improved upon, is definitely competitive with the main contenders. Getting the ground saving rail and moving to trainer Asmussen's number one jockey in Ricardo Santana for the first time, Midnight Bourbon absolutely rounds out a strong quartet of win contenders in the Lecomte Stakes.
The rest of the Lecomte Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures: Arabian Prince (87); Beep Beep (91), Dyn O Mite (84), Game Day Play (80), Manor House (87), Proxy (85) and Red N Wild (91).
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
