Risen Star Stakes ups ante for horses with Derby dreams
With less than three months until the Kentucky Derby and a key prep race slated this weekend, it’s high time we take a look at the early 3-year-old picture as it slowly begins to come into focus.
First, a few takeaways from my viewings of various prep races this year:
— Most visually impressive performances so far: Greatest Honour, winner of the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes for trainer Shug McGaughey at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 30, and the Chad Brown-trained Risk Taking in last weekend’s Grade 3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. Both colts will have to continue to advance, but both started their campaigns the right way and looked to be capable of handling the added distance of the Derby.
— Biggest flop so far: It’s got to be Bezos. The buzzy Bob Baffert-trained colt was pounded down to 26-1 in the second Derby futures pool despite never having run in a race but finished seventh in his Feb. 7 debut in a maiden special weight race at Santa Anita at odds of 3-5. Maybe the 6½-furlong distance was too short for the son of Empire Maker, but Baffert now has no margin for error if the colt is to qualify for the Derby.
— Don’t feel too bad for Baffert, however, as the Hall of Fame trainer has his typical full house of potential Derby horses. Among them: Life Is Good, winner of the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on Jan. 2; Medina Springs, runner-up in the Sham who came back to win the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis stakes; Concert Tour, who bested stablemate Freedom Fighter in last weekend’s Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes; and Spielberg, winner of the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in December.
We should learn more in Saturday’s $400,000 Risen Star Stakes, a Grade 2 race contested at 1⅛th miles at the Fair Grounds, which will be part of the “America’s Day at the Races” show on Fox Sports 2. Scheduled post time is 4:18 p.m. PT.
The race is the first of the year to offer 50 Derby qualifying points to the winner, as well as 20, 10 and five to the other top finishers. That means a win here would virtually guarantee a spot in the starting gate in Louisville.
But the race, which will not be available for wagering in Nevada because of the state’s ongoing contract dispute with Churchill Downs Inc., also could scramble the picture. Essential Quality and Keepmeinmind, who would have been a big players in the Big Easy, both opted to await the $750,000 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, which was postponed until Feb. 20 due to forecast wintry weather over the weekend in Arkansas.
That leaves the Risen Star with an equine cast trying to prove they belong in the elite division of the Class of 2021.
Keepmeinmind would have been the 3-1 morning line favorite, but in his absence the second choice, Mandaloun (9-2), a Brad Cox-trained son of Into Mischief who is adding blinkers, will fight it out for favoritism with Lecomte Stakes winner Midnight Bourbon (6-1), conditioned by Steve Asmussen.
The race is only being run for the third time since being extended to 1⅛th miles from 1 1/16th miles in 2019, so it’s hard to draw firm conclusions about the historical pattern. But both prior runnings at the distance went to horses that were close to or on the lead from the springing of the gates.
My money will be on Proxy (8-1), a Godophin homebred trained by Michael Stidham who gets a big rider switch from journeyman Mitchell Murrill to Hall of Famer John Velazquez.
The son of Tapit did all the hard work chasing Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte and still fought off a charging Mandaloun in the stretch to hang on for second. That was the colt’s first loss since being stretched out to two turns, and I think a more favorable pace scenario will help him conquer the Risen Star.
Mike Brunker’s horse racing column appears Fridays. He can be reached at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr's Risen Star Stakes analysis
I'm going to pick Santa Cruiser for the upset in the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (Grade 2), even after he finished fourth and nearly 10 lengths behind the top three finishers in the Lecomte Stakes last month. The reason is a simple one as I feel if not for significant trouble at the start of that race Santa Cruiser would have at least finished second. Additionally, he had been off for two months prior to the Lecomte so he has improving to do second off the layoff. Last summer, Santa Cruiser debuted at 6 furlongs and finished third, then stretched out to 7 furlongs and improved to finish second. When stretched out again to a mile in November, Santa Cruiser won while leading from the start but it was not an easy win as he was headed after 6 furlongs and had horse come to him on both sides in the stretch, digging in and drawing off. That effort earned a strong 95 Equibase Speed Figure, the best maiden winning figure in the field. Rested to return as a 3-year-old off that win, Santa Cruiser was decently regarded by bettors at 7-1 in the Lecomte Stakes but got bumped and shut off at the start, losing more than a few lengths. Not asked for any speed while last of eighth for the first half-mile, Santa Cruiser showed a decent amount of ability and instinct, passing all but the three who were well ahead when the field turned for home. Getting a jockey change to Adam Beschizza, who is fighting for the riding title head and head with James Graham, and with a clean start and better early position as compared to the Lecomte, Santa Cruiser can be in the thick of the action from the start and post the upset win in this year's Risen Star.
Midnight Bourbon has done little wrong in five career starts to date, finishing second in the Iroquois Stakes in only the second start of his career last summer then winning the Lecomte Stakes last month. The 99 figure is the second best earned by any horse in the Risen Star field to date and it is likely to be improved upon as Midnight Bourbon is making his second start after three months off. Although he won the Lecomte leading from start to finish, Midnight Bourbon has shown the ability to pass horses, such as in the Iroquois when fifth in the early stages then first with 1/8th of a mile to go before settling for second. Being a half-brother to 2017 Louisiana Derby winner Girvin, there's little doubt this colt can run as well or better at the 9-furlong trip of the Risen Star as he did in the shorter Lecomte Stakes and as such Midnight Bourbon could be a formidable opponent once more.
Senor Buscador stretched out off a visually impressive seventh-to-first win at 5 1/2 furlongs in his November debut to win the Springboard Mile Stakes just as impressively in his second career start the next month. In that race, Senor Buscador was last of 10 for the first half-mile and more than 10 lengths back, but went from eighth to first on the turn while circling the field wide, eventually drawing off to a five and three-quarter length win. The 107 figure is by far the best earned by any horse in the Risen Star field and being as this race will be only the third start of his career, Senor Buscador has every right to improve off the effort. His pedigree also suggests the 1 1/8th mile trip will be within his reach, as he is a half-brother to 2018 Sunland Park Derby winner Runaway Ghost. Additionally, a STATS Race Lens query shows how well trainer Todd Fincher does keeping his horses in top form, having won eight of 27 (30 percent) dirt route races over the past few years when his horse won its previous start.
A number of other horses have a chance to finish second or third, including the Lecomte second and third place finishers, Proxy (97) and Mandaloun (97), respectively. However watching the race not only were they no match for Midnight Bourbon I felt both ran pretty evenly in the last eighth of a mile and I don't expect enough improvement to turn the tables on the horse which beat them in the Risen Star.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures: Carillo (86), Defeater (84), O Besos (94), Rightandjust (90), Sermononthemount (72), Starrininmydreams (88) and Beep Beep (91).
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
