Santa Anita starts with loaded card for horseplayers
The rest of you will have to wait a few more days to turn the page on 2020, but the day after Christmas is the beginning of the new year for me.
That’s because Boxing Day, as it’s known in the U.K., is also opening day for Santa Anita’s winter-spring meeting.
The day-after-Christmas opener, which was rained out last year, always feels like a new beginning. That’s never been more true than in 2020.
Saturday’s 11-race card is chock-full of stakes races, with six on the card, five of them graded. The fun will begin earlier than usual, with first post at 11 a.m. Sunday’s card begins at 11:30 a.m.
Observant fans – none of whom will be at the track because of COVID-19 restrictions — will notice a few new wrinkles at “The Great Race Place” as it begins the meet that runs through June 20, with racing on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays most weeks.
Following construction of a new turf chute on the backstretch, the track will again offer turf sprints at 6½ furlongs, though they no longer will start on the unique downhill turf course. Turf sprints at 5½ furlongs, which started on the dirt track, no longer will be run.
The downhill course will only be used for the start of grass races at 1¼ miles or more, as it was last season.
You could get quite an argument going if you asked a dozen horseplayers to pick the marquee race on the opening day card, but the $300,000 Malibu Stakes is my sentimental pick.
The 7-furlong race for 3-year-olds always attracts an intriguing mix of Triple Crown contenders and sophomores that bloomed later in the year. And despite drawing just six horses this year, it is still a puzzle well worth your time.
The main reason is because the Steve Asmussen-trained Nashville, the 6-5 morning line favorite, appears vulnerable. Yes, he’s 3-for-3 and ran an unbelievably fast 6 furlongs on Nov. 7 at Keeneland in his last start, stopping the clock in 1:07 4/5 despite being shut down by jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. in the stretch.
But that was early on Day Two of the Breeders’ Cup, and the track was lightning fast, producing multiple course records on the main track. The son of Speightstown also received no pressure early or in the middle stages of the race, the $125,000 Perryville Stakes, leaving him with lots in reserve.
I suspect the deeper Santa Anita track and the higher caliber competition he’ll face in the Malibu might not be quite so much to his liking.
Charlatan, the 9-5 second choice on the morning line, also is undefeated in three starts and has a Grade 1 win in the Arkansas Derby for trainer Bob Baffert. He’s also 2-for-2 at Santa Anita and has been working well for his return after an almost eight-month layoff.
Charlatan has enough speed to stay close to Nashville in the early going and can begin to apply pressure by the top of the stretch, something Nashville has yet to experience.
Charlatan is my pick to wear down the latter. I’ll use him with Independence Hall (4-1) and Express Train (15-1) to try to inject some value into the exotics.
Congress passes horse racing bill
The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act, which would create a federal body to design and implement uniform national horse racing medication and racetrack safety standards, appeared to be dead in the water last week as Congress prepared to adjourn.
But the law found its way at the last minute into the omnibus government spending bill passed by Congress and awaiting President Donald Trump’s signature. He has since threatened to veto the bill, leaving the HISA in limbo until the impasse with Congress is broken.
I’ll keep an eye on the D.C. drama and dive deeper into the implications of the legislation in next week’s column.
Mike Brunker’s horse racing column appears Fridays. He can be reached at mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.
Ellis Starr's Malibu Stakes analysis
In this handicapper's opinion, this year's Malibu Stakes is Nashville's to lose. His effort in the Perryville Stakes last month at Keeneland was scintillating, winning by 3 1/2 lengths when galloping the last few yards after having run his opponents off their feet. The track that day was fast but fair and the 115 Equibase Speed Figure bears that out. Having earned a 106 figure winning his debut in September at Saratoga, then 113 five weeks later, Nashville is lightly enough raced that we have likely not seen his best yet. Since the Perryville, Nashville has put in three sizzling workouts at trainer Steve Asmussen's winter base at Fair Grounds in Louisiana consisting of three 5 furlong workouts, the most recent in :58.8 which was the best of 20 on the day. With the trainer's number one jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. in the saddle for the Malibu as he was for the Perryville, and with no horse in the field faster in the first quarter mile, Nashville may be running against the record book in terms of time in this year's race.
Independence Hall is the only horse I could see beating Nashville, based on how the race is likely to be run and based on the fact he's making his second start back after seven months off and coming off a career-best effort. Independence Hall won the first three races of his career in September 2019. His second and third career wins came in stakes, all around one turn including the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct last November with a 107 figure. Next winning the Jerome Stakes and putting himself into the early Derby picture, Independence Hall finished second in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, before a poor fifth place effort in the Florida Derby. Away from the races from the end of March until last month, Independence Hall changed trainers to Mike McCarthy and came back better than ever with a new career-best 108 figure effort at 6 1/2 furlongs. Likely pointing to this race with that prep, Independence Hall has put in two best of the day workouts since then, the most recent :59 flat for 5 furlongs which was the best of 83 at the distance on the day. He gets a good outside post in case the pace is hot and with logical improvement off his 108 last race figure could potentially post the upset.
Regarding Charlatan, who is likely to be either the betting favorite, or second betting favorite behind Nashville, there are some serious concerns in my opinion about his probability to win compared to others. First, he hasn't been seen since winning the Arkansas Derby nearly eight months ago and in spite of some excellent workouts, he doesn't stand out based on his best efforts. In the race prior to the Arkansas Derby at Santa Anita in March, Charlatan earned a 108 figure just on par with the figure Independence Hall earned last month and much lower than the 113 and 115 figures Nashville earned in his two most recent races, as well as shy of the 116 figure Collusion Illusion earned winning the Bing Crosby Stakes this summer. Next, in spite of having won this race three times previously, Bob Baffert just does not have a good record with horses coming back from layoffs in the two big races for 3-year-olds on opening weekend – the Malibu Stakes and the La Brea Stakes (for fillies). According to a query I ran using STATS Race Lens, Baffert has not won in seven tries over the last five years with horses coming back from layoffs longer than two months. His most recent win in this race, with McKinzie, came off a layoff of just under two months. Particularly, horses which last ran in May similar to Charlatan fared poorly, such as Lord Nelson (2015), Mor Spirit (2016) and Solomini (2018). With those results in mind I'm taking a stand against Charlatan, also noting he has led from start to finish in all three races to date and there's little doubt he's not going to have the early lead against Nashville.
As to the rest of the field, Express Train earned a career-best figure of 112 when second at a mile in late September over the track before a failed attempt on turf and could return to competitive form back on the main track. Collusion Illusion rallied from seventh to win the Bing Crosby with a 116 figure and before that won the Lazaro Barrera Stakes at the distance of 6 1/2 furlongs so he could be making up ground late and is another with a shot to finish in-the-money. Thousand Words ran the second worst race of his career when last seen in October, finishing eighth in the Preakness Stakes. His best efforts winning the Shared Belief Stakes and Robert B. Lewis Stakes earned 107 figures but both were two-turn races so he would need to run better than he ever has to beat many of these.
Ellis Starr is the national racing analyst for Equibase. Visit the Equibase website for more on the race or to purchase handicapping products.
