Use this tool to help find betting value in a horse race

You’ll often hear handicappers talk about finding “value” in a horse race, but they seldom explain what they mean.

There’s a reason for this: While few would argue against the notion that it makes sense to bet on contenders that have a better chance of winning than their odds suggest, there’s no foolproof way to identify those horses in a given race.

Pick a race and ask two handicappers which horses represent the value and you likely will get very different answers.

This is a subject that I intend to return to frequently, and invite some of our crowd ‘cappers to weigh in on as well, as finding value is indeed the secret sauce that will turn a losing horse player into a winner.

But as a conversation starter, I’d like to cover a concept that is familiar to many handicappers but something that few have ever practiced. It’s called making your own line.

There is a little math involved, but with this handy chart anyone can do it.

Here’s what you do: Start with 100 points, representing 100 percent, add a point for each horse in the race, then add points to represent the takeout – the amount the state removes from the win pool — at the racetrack you are playing. The amount varies by state, but you can use 16 if you don’t want to take the time to look it up on the state racing board’s website.

So, for example, if you’re betting an 11-horse race at Del Mar, the total would be 100+11+15 (the takeout rate in California)=126 points.

Now, handicap the race, assign points to each horse based on how you see their chances of winning. So if a horse is 5-1 in your estimation, it would get 17 points per the chart. When you finish, add up the points and see how close you are to the point total and adjust if necessary. The object is to get within a few points of the total to establish your estimation of each horse’s true odds of winning.

This may seem like a lot of extra work, but I’d encourage you to give it a try over a few weeks to see if it doesn’t add some discipline to your betting.

#RJhorseracing featured race

This week our corps of crack handicappers dug into Saturday’s 10th race at Del Mar, a contentious starter-allowance race at a mile on the turf for 3-year-olds and up.

The contest featuring some very lightly raced newcomers and some horses who have shown at least some affinity for the lawn should be a good betting race, based on our handicappers. They have the 7-2 morning line favorite, PopyhowuspelcupcakCQ, and 6-1 Rings of Jupiter tied atop the leaderboard. I’ll let guest handicapper Dean Wright make the case for both, as he picked them 1-2:

“Popyhowuspelcupcak has a lot going for him (though not his name). … His Gulfstream Park debut showed he knows how to overcome hardship, and he’s been working very well. However, we’re all about value. Rings of Jupiter also showed in his last at Santa Anita that he knows how to win while going wide.”

In keeping with our value theme, Dean says he will box those two and Mucho Chrome, who was a close third in the ballots cast by the 5 p.m. deadline.

You might want to listen, as Dean last week gave out the winning $100-plus exacta on Twitter under the #RJhorseracing hashtag.

As for me, I’m going to zag from the crowd ‘cappers this week and key on No. 10 Kona Dreams. I have great respect for trainer Bill Spawr and think he claimed the son of Midshipman, who has run some good races on the Del Mar lawn, one race back with this spot in mind. I’ll box him in exactas with Westwood’s Wizard, Mucho Chrome and Rainbow Squall.

You can join the fun next week. Download free past performances, courtesy of Equibase, at https://www.reviewjournal.com/horseracing when they’re posted on Wednesday, handicap the race and send me your top 3 picks via email or post them on Twitter using #RJhorseracing. If you get them in by 5 p.m. PT Thursday and I use your comment in the column, there’s a pack of R-J breath mints in it for you.

Contact Mike Brunker mbrunker@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-4656. Follow @mike_brunker on Twitter.