Handicapping Friday’s first day of Breeders’ Cup
November 4, 2010 - 11:00 pm
The Breeders' Cup championship races finally are upon us. There is no more enjoyable betting buffet for horseplayers than those 14 stakes today and Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Chances are you'll soon be suffering from information overload from multiple handicapping sources. But in the classic words of local radio personality John Kelly, "Listen to everyone, follow no one." That means while advice is well-intended, the final decision on what to bet always should be your own.
That said, here are my selections for the six Breeders' Cup races to be run today:
■ Marathon -- Awesome Gem (7-2) exits three Grade 1 stakes to face an easier task. The distance suits his style as a grinder type. Alcomo (6-1) will relish an off track if it rains in Louisville, Ky., as predicted. Eldaafer (12-1) appears to be improving with age. Long shot: Gabriel's Hill (20-1).
■ Juvenile Fillies Turf -- Winter Memories (2-1) is a solid chalk despite some good-looking Euros in the field. She has an explosive late kick. Together (5-1) is among a strong Euro group from trainer Aidan O'Brien. Flood Plain (20-1) is another talented Euro, this one from John Gosden. Long shot: More Than Real (10-1).
■ Filly & Mare Sprint -- Evening Jewel (15-1) turns back in distance from route to sprint, an angle I love to bet. Gabby's Golden Gal (15-1) has been prepared the same as another Bob Baffert Sprint winner, Midnight Lute. Sara Louise (15-1) had one prep for this off a 10-month hiatus, ready to launch. Long shot: Secret Gypsy (12-1).
■ Juvenile Fillies -- Awesome Feather (6-1) is unbeaten in five races at Calder; she so far has outrun her pedigree. Tell a Kelly (9-2) gets a big rider switch to the king of Churchill Downs, Calvin Borel. A Z Warrior (7-2) exploded in her first start on dirt as the speed of the race. Long shot: Theyskens' Theory (10-1).
■ Filly & Mare Turf -- Midday (6-5) is the most likely winner on Day 1. She won last year and has improved a lot this year. Harmonious (6-1) was so good winning at Keeneland that trainer John Shirreffs begged to run her back today. Red Desire (8-1) certainly can improve off her U.S. debut. Long shot: Plumania (8-1).
■ Ladies Classic -- Life At Ten (7-2) stubbed her toe once in dueling Rachel Alexandra to defeat. She won't make that mistake again. Havre de Grace (4-1) is as consistent as they come. Blind Luck (9-5) is a deserving chalk but has had an arduous season. Long shot: Unrivaled Belle (8-1).
On Saturday, Zenyatta will provide one of those rare electric sports moments in the Classic. Will she make it 20-for-20? I'll be giving out all of my Saturday selections at the South Point Breeders' Cup ballroom party. Most importantly, here's hoping that all of the participants finish their races safely.
■ WYNN MATCHUPS -- John Avello at Wynn Las Vegas posted five pages of horse-to-horse matchups for the Breeders' Cup. I'll offer one opinion: I like No. 7121, Awesome Feather (plus-120) over Tell a Kelly (minus-150) in the Juvenile Fillies.
■ STATION TWIN QUINELLA -- If you like betting a little to win a lot, then consider playing Station Casino's $20,000 Twin Quinella on Saturday. It's what we horseplayers call a positive expectancy bet.
Richard Eng's horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com.