Travers might be too close to call, but let’s go with Creator

Entering the Travers last year, it was no secret that Triple Crown winner American Pharoah was the champion 3-year-old horse.

But Saratoga has stymied many a champion. It kept its reputation intact by hanging an upset loss on American Pharoah by Keen Ice. Still, American Pharoah kept a firm grip on the Eclipse Award and ended his career with a tour de force win in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

This year, there is no such horse heading into the $1.25 million Travers on Saturday. The Triple Crown races were won by three horses: Nyquist, Exaggerator and Creator. The Jim Dandy was won by a maiden, Laoban, and Exaggerator won the Haskell at Monmouth Park.

Exaggerator (3-1) is the one horse who can claim a championship with a win in the Travers. But oddly enough, he might be the value play of the race. The reason is a nice weather day for Saratoga on Saturday.

Exaggerator on a fast track is not the same horse as on a wet track. The biggest wins of his life have come over an off track in the Haskell, Preakness, Santa Anita Derby and even the Delta Jackpot. I suggest he might be a square price on a fast main track at Saratoga.

When you handicap a full field of 14 horses in the Travers, one must project a pace scenario. That will help you to make an educated guess as to whom it might favor.

For example, when Laoban (15-1) won the Jim Dandy, he walked through a half-mile in 49 seconds. That fraction is slow even for $20,000 claimers in a two-turn route race.

That gave Laoban the stamina to sprint home and hold off Governor Malibu (12-1) and Destin (10-1). I do not see that slow of a pace in the Travers.

There are some quick horses who have done their best running while in front. I am talking about Arrogate (10-1), American Freedom (6-1), Connect (4-1), Laoban and Gun Runner (10-1). Should any of them try to shake free up front, the half mile should be about 47 seconds.

The way I see the Travers is the pace should be fast enough to give the stalkers and closers a fighting chance. With that in mind, my choice to win is Creator (12-1).

Creator was also in the Jim Dandy, and he had no chance to rally into such soft fractions. But his two biggest wins came in the Belmont Stakes and Arkansas Derby, where a faster pace gave him a shot to close. The Jim Dandy took little out of the horse, so he could be ready to run big Saturday.

Next is Exaggerator, who also will benefit if the pace is fast. The Desormeaux brothers settled on a running style in which the colt is taken far back to make one run.

My third pick is Governor Malibu, who has had excuses in the Belmont Stakes and Jim Dandy. His stalking style should have him well-positioned turning for home.

Finally it’s Gift Box (12-1), who is a must-use at this generous price. He could see a perfect pace scenario as a stalker, closer type.

ENG’S PICKS: Creator, Exaggerator, Governor Malibu, Gift Box.

Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. You can buy his Del Mar picks at www.racedaylasvegas.com. You can email him at rich_eng@hotmail.com and follow him on Twitter @richeng4propick