Wise Dan races toward third Horse of Year title

As soon as Wise Dan crossed the finish line first in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland, the questions began. The two-time defending Horse of the Year has ended his championship seasons with wins in the Breeders’ Cup Mile on turf.

Wise Dan is a top contender for a third straight HOY. However, the dynamics are different this year. Two 3-year-old horses, Shared Belief and California Chrome, have built such strong resumes that should either win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, they might be in the driver seat for HOY.

Shared Belief is unbeaten in four starts in 2014. He defeated older horses in both the Pacific Classic and Awesome Again.

California Chrome missed winning the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. But prior wins in five stakes, including the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, would make him a popular choice should he win the Classic.

Wise Dan would complete a perfect season of five grade 1 wins should he win the Mile. The campaign would mirror what he did in 2012 and 2013. And here’s the rub.

Wise Dan would establish himself, for a third time, as the best turf miler in the world. But a win by either Shared Belief or California Chrome in the Classic would be over the best handicap horses still in training.

Of course, this conversation is moot should Wise Dan win the Turf and Shared Belief and California Chrome get upset in the Classic.

There is an option for Wise Dan to control his own destiny: to run in the Classic instead of the Turf. It would be a brave, risky choice by trainer Charlie LoPresti and owner Morton Fink.

Racing on dirt and going 1¼ miles are both out of Wise Dan’s comfort zone. But what he would be doing is taking the ballot out of the hands of the Eclipse voters and settling who is HOY on the racetrack.

If you examine the older handicap horse division, it has been weakened due to the losses of Mucho Macho Man, Palace Malice and Will Take Charge to injury.

The best finishes by older horses in the two Classic preps, the Awesome Again at Santa Anita and Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park, were seconds by Fed Biz and Zivo, respectively. Neither horse should scare Wise Dan one bit.

So the question begs how Wise Dan would fare facing Shared Belief and California Chrome head on. It would be the most difficult test of his stellar Hall of Fame career, but possibly one worth taking.

The great Zenyatta faced a somewhat similar dilemma. She was head and shoulders best in the filly and mare division, but winning one Distaff after another would have proved little. To clinch a HOY title, trainer John Shirreffs and owners Jerry and Ann Moss ran her twice outside of her comfort zone in the Classic against males, winning it once.

And Zenyatta in her Classic loss to Blame, she may have actually run the best race of her career in defeat. She did not like the Churchill main track, but still ran her heart out. Fans remember that and hold Zenyatta in even higher esteem.

Whatever direction he takes, Wise Dan owes us nothing. His greatness is already cemented. But by accepting this steep challenge, it would make this Breeders’ Cup one for the ages.

Richard Eng’s horse racing column is published Friday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He can be reached at rich_eng@hotmail.com. Follow him on Twitter: @richeng4propick.