Success for Harper? Looks like sure thing

If there is anything baseball teaches, it's how to spit and scratch. And that between its white lines, in front of its walls of ivy and monsters of green, there are no sure things.

There is a Jarrod Saltalamacchia. There has been a Billy Grabarkewitz. There has never been a Nicollette Sheridan.

Nicollette Sheridan played The Sure Thing, whose wardrobe consisted only of a bikini smaller than an American Legion umpire's strike zone, in the movie of the same name. John Cusack dumped her for Daphne Zuniga. Granted, this was 1985. Who could have known that Nicollette Sheridan would go on to become a Desperate Housewife and Daphne Zuniga would go on to become ... well, Daphne Zuniga? But this proves only that there are no sure things. And that Lou Brock-for-Ernie Broglio trade perhaps wasn't as bad as it once seemed.

The romantic yearnings of a pubescent Mr. Cusack notwithstanding, the first player selected in the first round of the major league draft is the closest thing to a sure one that our National Pastime has to offer, if you don't count the Yankees raising ticket prices.

Bryce Harper of the College of Southern Nevada, by way of Las Vegas High School and a lot of those traveling summertime all-star teams, became the first local player to be selected first in the MLB draft Monday.

What a huge accomplishment for this precocious young man.

Harper is only 17, and yet he's almost property of the Washington Nationals, as it says on those gray T-shirts at spring training. It'll take a boatload of cash to make it official, and it might not happen until Aug. 15, one day before the signing deadline, because that's usually how long it takes evil super-agent Scott Boras to fleece employers of his clients for last nickels.

There have been 46 First Overalls since the draft's advent in 1965. Only two -- Steve Chilcott in 1966 and Brien Taylor in 1991 -- retired without appearing in The Show, as Crash Davis and those video game companies would put it. Matt Bush, taken first overall by the San Diego Padres in 2004, could be the third, especially if he keeps getting arrested. Six years into his pro career, the former shortstop is now pitching for the Class-A Charlotte Stone Crabs until he can marry a girl whose father owns a car dealership.

With the exception of Chilcott, Taylor, Bush and Tim Beckham -- that latter still working on it after being tabbed first by the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008 -- every other first overall pick has gone on to have his picture on a trading card. Stephen Strasburg, last year's Numero Uno, becomes the latest one today when he starts for the Nationals against the Pittsburgh Pirates in what might be the most anticipated debut since Capitol Records pressed "Meet the Beatles."

Of the 46 Chosen Firsts, 19 have been All-Stars.

Two -- Bob Horner in 1978 and Darryl Strawberry in '80 -- were Rookies of the Year.

Three -- Ken Griffey Jr. in 1987, Chipper Jones in '90 and Alex Rodriguez in '93 -- are locks for the Hall of Fame. We'll have to wait and see on Joe Mauer, taken first in 2001. So far, so great.

One supposes if Jim Joyce could miss that call at first base, it's not inconceivable to imagine young Bryce could somehow turn into old Shawn Abner, whom the Mets anointed "Can't Miss" (Sure Thing's first cousin) before taking him first in 1984. Abner sort of missed, hitting .227 with 11 career home runs and 71 RBIs, thereby becoming the baseball Daphne Zuniga.

Harper is the sixth first-round draft pick from Las Vegas, joining Mike Morgan (1978), Danny Opperman (1987), Tyler Houston (1989), Chad Hermansen (1995) and Dave Krynzel (2000). (Greg Maddux was a second-round pick in 1984, for those scoring at home.)

Morgan, taken fourth overall by the Oakland Athletics, made his major league debut at age 18 and pitched for 12 teams in 22 big league seasons. Houston, selected second by the Atlanta Braves, is one of 491 players to have hit three homers in a game. The other locals, slowed by injuries and whatnot, didn't make it.

Injuries and whatnot are impossible to predict.

Expectations heaped on young shoulders by an impatient public are impossible to deal with.

Then there are those major league curveballs that start out at 12 o'clock, wind up at 6 and are impossible to hit.

But lurking among all these impossibilities is the proven-over-time probability that young Bryce Harper is going to make it anyway.

It will be interesting to see how big.

Las Vegas Review-Journal columnist Ron Kantowski can be reached at rkantowski@reviewjournal.com or 702-383-0352.