Betting action lopsided in owl-goat matchup in New England
A billboard near New England’s Gillette Stadium shows an owl in a hoodie that represents Bill Belichick and a goat wearing No. 12 that represents Tom Brady with the phrase, “The OWL is no longer wise without his GOAT!”
The depictions are from Julian Edelman’s children’s book “Flying High,” in which the main character is coached by a wise owl and inspired by a goat named Tom. The billboard also shows Belichick’s 62-74 career record without Brady.
The betting public agrees with the sentiment in a big way heading into Sunday’s showdown between the Buccaneers and Patriots in Brady’s return to New England.
The public is all over Tampa Bay, which had soared to a 7-point favorite Thursday at every Las Vegas sportsbook except the South Point and Westgate SuperBook, where it remained at 6½.
Ninety-seven percent of the tickets written on the game at the SuperBook are on the Bucs, who were -5½ on the look-ahead line and opened at -3½ in May.
“The public’s enthralled with Tampa and not impressed with the Patriots,” SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons said.
New England is 1-2 straight up and ATS and coming off an ugly 28-13 home loss to the Saints in which rookie quarterback Mac Jones threw three interceptions. But Salmons expects the Patriots to hang tough in this one.
“I think the Patriots will come to play in that game,” he said. “Tampa is definitely beat up on defense, and all their games this year have been a struggle. The early returns are they look a little slow on defense compared to last year. I don’t think they’re an invincible team by any means.
“With all the hype with Brady, I would be shocked if the Patriots don’t give their A game. I’m never going to write off Belichick.”
Fading Alabama
Nobody is writing off Nick Saban, Belichick’s close friend, but gamblers are betting against the Alabama coach and his top-ranked Crimson Tide in Saturday’s matchup against No. 12 Mississippi in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama opened as a 20-point favorite at Circa Sports, which posts the opening lines on college football at 11 a.m. Sundays. A flurry of sharp bets on the Rebels caused the line to drop to 14½ before it settled at 15 at Circa. The number is at 14½ at every other book, and the total is 79½ in a rematch of last season’s 63-48 Tide win.
Salmons said the betting public is all over Ole Miss.
“The public is enamored with Ole Miss. They love teams that score points,” he said. “It feels like the kind of game where Ole Miss can hang around for a while. But, in the end, Alabama will pull away. I would imagine they’ll wind up covering. They’re just too good.
“Alabama’s defense is much more advanced than it was last year at this time. I would be shocked if the defense doesn’t come out really focused. And Alabama will have zero problems scoring points against Ole Miss.”
Heisman race
The Alabama-Ole Miss game, one of three top-12 matchups Saturday — along with No. 2 Georgia (-19)-No. 9 Arkansas and No. 7 Cincinnati (-1½)-No. 9 Notre Dame — will probably go a long way toward determining the Heisman Trophy winner.
Rebels quarterback Matt Corral is the +175 favorite at the SuperBook to win the Heisman, and Crimson Tide QB Bryce Young is the 2-1 second choice. Bearcats QB Desmond Ridder is the 20-1 third pick.
“If Ole Miss wins, (Corral) will go into huge minus money,” Salmons said. “If ’Bama blows them out and (Young) is looking good, it will go the opposite way.”
Showing their Cards
In a matchup of 3-0 NFL teams, the Rams are -4 over the Cardinals after the line opened at 6 at Circa, which took sharp action on Arizona at +6 and +5.
“It’s such a flat spot for the Rams,” Salmons said. “They had two games on the road and came home and had a huge game against Tampa. This is definitely the flat spot that’s getting baked into the line now. The Cardinals certainly look like they can score some points.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
