Falcons’ collapse helps Vegas sportsbooks to best week of season
Sir Winston Churchill wasn’t talking about gamblers when he said “those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”
But he could have been as countless sports bettors who didn’t learn from the Falcons’ history of choking were doomed to lose their wagers Sunday.
Atlanta, which closed as a 2½-point favorite over Chicago, became the first team in NFL history to lose back-to-back games in which it led by 15 or more points in the fourth quarter, blowing a 26-10 lead in the final 6 minutes, 20 seconds of a 30-26 loss.
The Bears were 33-1 underdogs on the in-play money line at BetMGM before rallying for the win behind three TD passes by Nick Foles, who replaced Mitch Trubisky.
The Falcons, who blew a 15-point fourth-quarter lead in a 40-39 loss at Dallas in Week 2, were the most popular pick in the Westgate SuperContest and one of the top five picks in the Circa Sports Million II.
The meltdown by Atlanta — which went three-and-out three times and threw an interception on its final four possessions — dealt bettors one of their largest losses of the day while Chicago’s outright upset was one of the biggest wins for Las Vegas sportsbooks.
“It really doesn’t surprise me,” Westgate sportsbook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “We all know what they did in the Super Bowl. But for them to collapse like that two weeks in a row, it’s inexcusable for an organization.
“You see teams go 0-2 and still have a chance to make the playoffs. But going 0-3 is impossible. That was a big game for the Falcons.”
Books bounce back
A week after bettors beat the books on teasers and money-line parlays as favorites won 14 of 16 games, the books enjoyed their best week of the NFL season so far. That was thanks in large part to outright upsets by Chicago, Detroit (+5½, 26-23 over Arizona) and Carolina (+6, 21-16 over the Chargers); a tie by Cincinnati (+5½, 23-23 with Philadelphia); and Minnesota (+2½) covering in a 31-30 loss to Tennessee.
“It took us three weeks to have a decent day,” The Mirage sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said. “We were able to get some underdogs this week. We got two in the morning and it took us all week to get two last week.”
One BetMGM bettor lost a $110,000 straight bet on Atlanta and another won $120,000 on a $100,000 money-line bet on Chicago (+120).
Bettors’ best
The best games for bettors were the Patriots (-7, 36-20 over the Raiders), Buccaneers (-6, 28-10 over the Broncos), Bills (-2, 35-32 over the Rams), Browns (-7, 34-20 over Washington) and the Seahawks (-5½, 38-31 over the Cowboys).
Buffalo, which erased a 35-3 deficit in a 41-38 OT playoff win over Houston in 1993, almost blew a 28-3 lead over the Rams. Los Angeles was 33-1 on the live money line before storming back to take a 32-28 lead in the final minutes.
The Bills appeared to be done after Josh Allen’s incompletion on fourth down with 25 seconds left. But they were bailed out by a pass interference call on the Rams and scored a touchdown on the next play to improve to 3-0.
It’s all over
Some sharp bettors banked on low-scoring games early in this unprecedented NFL season. But overs continue to cash for the betting public with a 29-18 record. Overs went 20-12 in the first two weeks and were 7-1 in the Sunday morning games.
“The one thing that’s really hurting us is the totals,” Sunset Station sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “We’re definitely seeing an uptick in over play. You can make a case the five biggest games of the day were the Raiders, Rams, Texans, Titans and Cowboys and all five went sailing over.”
Giant decision
San Francisco’s 36-9 blowout of the Giants was a solid win for BetMGM and Station Casinos and a monster decision for DraftKings sportsbook, which took a $500,000 bet on New York (+4) and a $500,000 wager on Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to throw for more than 244½ yards (he finished with 179).
But the Westgate lost on the game as bettors continue to fade the Giants and Jets, who fell to 0-3 ATS after getting whipped 36-7 by the Colts (-11½).
“I really should get Jets and Giants jerseys because we’ll be rooting for those two teams pretty much every single week,” Kornegay said. “Everyone seems to be warming up to bet against the Giants and Jets. And I don’t think the (Washington) Football Team is that far behind them.
“Some of these teams are really bad. Just bet against the whole NFC East and I think you’re fine.”
That’s been a solid strategy so far. NFC East teams went 0-4 ATS on Sunday and are a combined 2-10 ATS this season.
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
