For once, Las Vegas oddsmakers agree with NCAA committee

Las Vegas oddsmakers often have been at odds over the years with the NCAA Tournament selection committee.

But the committee was on the money on Selection Sunday, when there was only one instance in which a higher seed was favored over a lower seed.

No. 10 Rutgers is a 1-point favorite over No. 7 Clemson, and No. 10 Virginia Tech is a pick’em against No. 7 Florida.

But Westgate vice president of risk Ed Salmons had no complaints about the seeds in relation to the betting lines on the first 32 games of the 68-team tournament, which tips off its First Four games Thursday.

“I would say this is the best they’ve ever done doing the seeds,” he said. “Usually, you see a 12 favored over a 5 or an 11 favored over a 6. I usually complain about them, but I thought they did a good job.

“They’re literally all within a point of my power rating numbers.”

12-5 matchups

In 30 of the past 35 tournaments, a 12 seed has won at least one first-round game. Based on the point spreads, No. 12 Georgetown has the best shot at an upset as a 5-point underdog to No. 5 Colorado.

“I think the public will be all over Georgetown in that game,” Salmons said. “But Colorado is head and shoulders a better team than them this year. So if you can lay a low number in the end, it’s worth your while.”

Colorado was upset by Oregon State 70-68 in the Pac-12 tournament title game Saturday at T-Mobile Arena, and the Hoyas stunned Creighton 73-48 for the Big East championship.

The other 12 seeds are Winthrop (+6½ vs. Villanova), UC Santa Barbara (+6½ vs. Creighton) and Oregon State (+8 vs. Tennessee).

“The public will hammer Winthrop, and Oregon State is going to be a public team, too,” Salmons said. “I don’t think any of those teams will win. These are true 12-5 games where a lot of times they’ll be pick or the 12 seed will be the favorite.”

Orange crush

Based on the line, Syracuse has the best shot at pulling off an 11-6 upset. The Orange are 2-point underdogs to San Diego State, which defeated Utah State for the Mountain West tournament title Saturday at the Thomas & Mack Center.

“I would expect the public to take Syracuse. They’re always a team the public loves,” Salmons said. “Every year, we’ll lose six digits on Syracuse to the futures book (if they win the title).”

We’re No. 1

Salmons said No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga was rightfully rewarded with the easiest region in the West.

“Gonzaga definitely has the easiest way to the Final Four, and that’s how it should be since they were the overall No. 1 seed,” he said. “They beat Iowa this year, they beat Virginia and they beat Kansas, and they’re all in their region.”

Salmons said No. 1 seed Illinois has the toughest region in the Midwest, where the Fighting Illini could face Oklahoma State in the Sweet 16 and then play the winner of West Virginia and Houston in the Elite Eight.

He said Texas has a great shot to advance to the Final Four from the East and that Texas Tech is in good position to reach the Final Four from the South.

“Texas Tech has got a tough draw in its first game against Utah State,” Salmons said. “But if they can get past that game, Arkansas doesn’t want to play Texas Tech.”

One of the biggest early line moves was on the Colgate-Arkansas total, which soared from 157½ to 163½.

“Both teams like to run,” Salmons said.

Best bets

Handicapper Paul Stone likes 9½-point underdog Colgate to stay close against the Razorbacks. The Raiders (14-1) beat Loyola (Md.) 85-72 on Sunday to win the Patriot League tournament.

“Colgate’s strength of schedule can certainly be questioned since it was restricted to conference games this season,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “However, the Raiders only lost once all season and are one of the nation’s top 3-point shooting teams (39 percent), and that can be the great equalizer during the tournament.

“This is going to be a fun, fast-paced game.”

Stone also likes Michigan State (-1) over UCLA in one of Thursday’s play-in games.

“The Spartans have played their best basketball of the season over the past month,” he said. “And they’ve been sharpened by playing in arguably the toughest league in the country. Plus, UCLA enters on a four-game losing streak.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.