Las Vegas oddsmakers at odds with college rankings
Las Vegas oddsmakers often are at odds with college polls.
There are countless cases of unranked teams being favored over ranked teams and ranked teams being favored over teams ranked above them.
In those cases, the betting public typically backs the ranked squads, while sharp bettors bank on the unranked teams.
“We see it all the time in college football and college basketball, too, where a ranked team getting points will become somewhat of a trendy public play,” Westgate sportsbook director John Murray said. “It’s gotten to the point now where an unranked team laying points is almost a cliche wiseguy thing to bet on.
“Everybody does that now.”
Two recent examples involved unranked Virginia Tech, which was a 2½-point favorite over No. 9 Miami last week and a 17-point favorite over No. 21 Liberty on Nov. 7.
The public prevailed in each case, as the Hokies lost 25-24 to the Hurricanes and 38-35 to the Flames. But Murray and Circa Sports sportsbook director Matthew Metcalf don’t recommend betting based on polls.
“I haven’t looked at a poll in 20 years, since I was a kid reading the newspaper,” Metcalf said. “I guess I care a little what the coaches think, but it has no bearing on what numbers we put up.
“Our numbers are a better reflection of the truth, because people are actually putting money on it. Those polls are just for show.”
One of the major factors in the power ratings used by oddsmakers is a team’s strength of schedule, whereas the rankings mostly reward wins.
“In a normal year, teams will get out to a 6-0 or 7-0 record because they’ve played an easy schedule,” Murray said. “The first time they play a real opponent, they’re an (underdog) because oddsmakers know it’s fool’s gold and the team hasn’t played anybody yet.
“You get it in the NFL, too, where teams get out to a really good record because their schedule is so easy. We saw it with the Bears. They started 5-1, but obviously the Bears aren’t very good.”
Banking on Bearcats
Circa, the first book to post college football lines at 11 a.m. each Sunday, opened the line on Saturday’s game between unranked Central Florida and No. 7 Cincinnati at pick’em. But gamblers bet the Bearcats up to 6-point favorites.
“I have Cincinnati three points better, but the market is saying they’re nine points better,” Metcalf said. “I’m still factoring in three points for home-field advantage, whether that’s right or wrong.
“Once professional bettors start betting, I have to factor that into my line. That’s their living, and I have to respect it.”
Oklahoma line ‘crazy’
Oklahoma State is ranked No. 14 in The Associated Press Top 25 poll, and Oklahoma is ranked No. 18. But the Sooners are 7-point favorites over the Cowboys after Circa opened the line at 10.
“The raw number I had on that game was Oklahoma -13. But I opened it -10 because I knew the market wouldn’t agree with me,” Metcalf said. “We saw one-way action on Oklahoma State all the way down to 7. To get below 10 on that game seems crazy to me.
“But when you see money coming in, you have to throw your opinion to the side and respect it.”
NFL best bets
— Eagles-Browns Under 47½
Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw likes Cleveland’s home game against Philadelphia to go under the total. He bet it under 48.
“Cleveland’s been running the ball real well, and there’s expected to be rain and decent-sized wind there Sunday,” Whitelaw said. “Not as strong as last week, but still 20 mph.”
The Browns have gone under in their last two home games, which have averaged a total of 19.5 points. The total is the only one on the board at William Hill that has drawn the majority of tickets and money wagered on the under.
“If there’s ever going to be an under team, it’s Cleveland,” William Hill sportsbook director Nick Bogdanovich said. “They just want to pound (Nick) Chubb and (Kareem) Hunt. At this time of the year, they have have terrible weather pretty much every game.”
— Cowboys (+7) over Vikings
Professional sports bettor Cris Zeniuk is banking on the Cowboys to cover at Minnesota with quarterback Andy Dalton expected back under center.
“I try not to bet bad teams. But there’s an exception. Don’t play bad teams that are laying points. This is the largest model value this week,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “The data says there isn’t much difference between these teams overall. Minnesota still rates only 23rd in the NFL (in my power rankings), and a team that low shouldn’t be laying a touchdown.
“Dallas is showing signs of life recently and getting injured players back. And we get the added value of nobody wanting to touch the Cowboys.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.
