NBA under bets under the Christmas tree

Like Clark Griswold’s 12-month subscription to the Jelly of the Month Club in “Christmas Vacation,” betting NBA unders on Christmas Day is the gift that keeps on giving.

The under is 41-24-1 (63.0 percent) on the holiday since 2005 and has been a moneymaker in 14 of the last 15 years.

Five NBA games are scheduled Friday. Betting under on the first three games — which tip off at 9:10 a.m., 11:40 and 2:10 p.m. — has been the most profitable proposition, going 28-13 (68.2).

The early games went 1-2 to the under last season, but the final two games stayed under for a 3-2 winning record.

The lowest total is 224 each for the day’s first game between the Pelicans and Heat and for the nightcap between the Clippers and Nuggets.

“We’ve seen scoring up the past couple of years. That’s indicative of what these totals are,” Westgate sportsbook vice president of risk Jeff Sherman said Thursday morning. “I wouldn’t blindly go bet all these games under. Usually that first game is the one targeted for the under.

“It’s already moved down a little bit. Offshores opened it 229. We opened it at 226, and it’s at 224. We haven’t seen too much movement on the other ones.”

Sherman bet on one under, the first half of the Pelicans-Heat (112½).

“Just because of the early time slot,” he said. “Sometimes they come out more sluggish in the first half until they adjust.”

The Warriors-Bucks total is 232 (11:40 a.m.), the Nets-Celtics total is 228½ (2:10 p.m.) and the Mavericks-Lakers total is 227 (5:10 p.m.).

Here are Sherman’s quick takes on each game (home team in CAPs with line):

Pelicans-HEAT (-4½)

“I would lean to the underdog. At the end of last year and going into this year, the Pelicans seem to be a live ’dog. They added some nice veterans to their young core in Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe, even though they traded Jrue Holiday. It’s tough to bet young teams as favorites, but in the underdog role, that’s the preferred side.”

Warriors-BUCKS (-10)

“It’s tough to see Golden State hanging around in this game. Draymond Green is still not playing, and it looks like the loss of Klay Thompson will have an effect on the team like what happened last year (15-50 record). There’s such a burden on Steph Curry right now.”

Nets (-3)-CELTICS

“This line has crept up a little bit. We first opened it Celtics -1 before the Kemba Walker news (out until at least January with a knee injury), then it was Brooklyn -1 and now -3. It’s all perception based on what the Nets did opening night (in a 125-99 win over the Warriors). Everybody wants to be involved with the Nets. They’re almost right behind the Lakers in popularity.”

Mavericks-LAKERS (-6)

“I wouldn’t be in any hurry to lay the Lakers because they’re already priced as such a public team. I think this line will creep down more than up. LeBron James sat out the last eight minutes of the fourth quarter (in Tuesday’s 116-109 loss to the Clippers). I know he tweaked his ankle, but I think they’ll manage LeBron’s minutes more. There’s not so much of an emphasis on regular-season games for the Lakers. The Mavericks played them tough last year.”

Clippers (-2½)-NUGGETS

“This number would’ve been less except we saw the Clippers win against the Lakers and the Nuggets lost at home to Sacramento (in Wednesday’s 124-122 overtime loss). This one could go either way.”

Sharps on Vikings

In Friday’s NFL game, New Orleans is a consensus 7-point home favorite over Minnesota. Sherman said sharp bettors are on the Vikings +7 and the betting public is on the Saints, who were -6½ at the Westgate and South Point on Thursday afternoon.

“In that type of spot, the sharps tend to be on the ’dog,” he said.

Looking live

Brent Musburger leads the Review-Journal NFL Challenge with a 41-31-3 ATS record. The VSiN host and Raiders radio play-by-play man has two plays on Saturday: Raiders (+3) over Dolphins and Cardinals (-5) over 49ers.

Best bets

Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw likes the Colts (-1½) over the Steelers on Sunday.

“The Steelers have multiple injuries. They can’t run at all, and now they’re facing a very good defensive team,” he said. “Pittsburgh just has nothing but problems right now.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.