NCAA Tournament sleepers: High on the Hogs

Before Michigan joined Gonzaga and Baylor as the prohibitive favorites to win the NCAA basketball title, a William Hill bettor in Nevada made a $1,000 wager to win $125,000 on the Wolverines at 125-1.

Long odds are mostly long gone on teams with a realistic chance of cutting down the nets April 5 in Indianapolis. But several squads still offer some value.

Arkansas, 70-1

Paul Stone likes Gonzaga to win its first national championship, but at 2-1 odds the Texas-based handicapper does not see any value in backing the Bulldogs at the betting window.

Instead, he recommends taking a look at long shot Arkansas and fiery former UNR coach Eric Musselman. The Razorbacks (20-5, 16-7-1 ATS) are 70-1 at William Hill to win their first NCAA title since 1994.

“Arkansas is an intriguing team that is quietly playing as well as almost anyone in the entire country,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “The Razorbacks have won seven straight games and 10 of their past 11. They are a deep team — nine players average 12 minutes or more a game — and can typically score from all five positions on the floor.

“At 70-1, I think they’re worth a look.”

Handicapper Brian Edwards also is high on the Hogs.

“Arkansas is a steal at 70-1 right now,” said Edwards (@vegasbedwards). “This is one of the country’s hottest teams, winning 10 consecutive SEC games. Since losing at Alabama on Jan. 16, Eric Musselman’s team has lost just once, and that was an 81-77 setback at Oklahoma State.

“The Razorbacks have a star in freshman Moses Moody, a projected lottery pick who averages 17 points per game. Arkansas has lots of balance, too, with seven players averaging at least 7.2 ppg.”

West Virginia, 40-1

Edwards also recommends a play on the Mountaineers (17-7), noting that six of their seven losses have been by five points or fewer and that they’ve proved they can win on the road with victories at Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

“I like elite guard play in a tournament team that I feel can win six games in a row,” he said. “Bob Huggins’ squad has that with Deuce McBride, who can shoot the three, take care of the ball and make free throws at crunch time.

“West Virginia’s other guards can fill it up from downtown and knock down free throws, too.”

The Mountaineers are 40-1 at Circa and the Westgate.

Oklahoma State, 90-1

The Cowboys are appealing a one-year postseason ban they received in June and might not be eligible for the tournament. But unless the NCAA rules on the matter before the tournament, Oklahoma State and freshman star Cade Cunningham, the projected top pick in the 2021 NBA draft, will be eligible.

Before the Cowboys (17-6) played at Baylor (19-1) on Thursday, they were listed at 90-1 at Circa.

“Oklahoma State looks like great value at 90-1 odds,” Edwards (Majorwager.com) said before the game. “Cunningham is the type of freshman talent like Carmelo Anthony, who carried Syracuse to the 2003 national title. This team is gaining confidence and will clearly be a tough out in Indianapolis.”

Houston, 20-1

The Cougars (20-3, 16-6 ATS) are the largest liability to win the NCAA title at the Westgate, which took a $10,000 bet to win $300,000 on Houston at 30-1.

Westgate vice president of risk Ed Salmons said Houston, Villanova, Texas Tech and Oklahoma are capable of making a title run. Houston and Villanova are each 20-1 at William Hill, Texas Tech is 55-1 and Oklahoma 60-1.

“A lot of teams can win this thing. It’s just a matter of where they get placed in the draw. There’s so much luck involved,” Salmons said. “Houston just has a ton of talent. It’s very athletic and has got a ton of guys who can score and dribble. Villanova is another really solid team that can win this thing.

“Teams like Texas Tech that are really well-coached and have some decent talent will always make a run. If things fall right, Oklahoma has enough talent to make a run to the Elite Eight or maybe even the Final Four.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.