NFL favorites dominate again; Giants KO $14.3M Survivor contestants

Favorites have been money for NFL bettors this season, winning more than 70 percent of games for the first time since 2017 and for only the third time in the last 26 years.

They dominated again in Week 17, winning 13 of 14 games while going 11-3 ATS (Jaguars-Titans closed at pick’em).

But all it took was one Giant upset Sunday to bail out sportsbooks and seal the fate of 16 Circa Survivor contestants who took the Colts.

Condolences to all bettors who backed Indianapolis, a 7-point favorite that was stunned 45-33 by the Giants, who entered with the NFL’s worst record at 2-13. But especially to those Survivor entries who had picked 18 straight winners, outlasted 14,232 other contestants and were among the 34 still in the hunt for the $14.3 million prize when they were knocked out by lowly New York.

Eighteen entries are on to Week 18, the most entering the final week of the contest since 2020, when 35 entries split the prize pool.

Book report

The Giants produced the week’s only outright upset after the Commanders (-3½) escaped with a thrilling 30-24 overtime win and cover over the Falcons on “Sunday Night Football.”

“The New York Football Giants were almost certainly the best result for the book this season,” Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said. “The parlay buster in the Giants’ outright win was the difference between a historic day for the customers versus a huge sigh of relief for the book.

“Given the incredible straight up run favorites have been on, we were fully expecting a Giant implosion in the fourth quarter in another obscure method as many have been this year.”

Eight Survivor entries sweated out a win Saturday night by the Rams after Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray threw an interception on first-and-goal from the 5 with 42 seconds left. Arizona (+6½) still covered in a 13-9 loss.

Cincinnati, kid

The best game of the weekend for bettors at the Westgate SuperBook was the Bengals’ 30-24 overtime win and cover over the Broncos. Cincinnati was 3½-point favorites most of the week and closed -3. The game also went over the total of 50½.

Rather than settle for a tiebreaking field goal in the final seconds of regulation, the Bengals scored a touchdown with 1:29 left. That allowed Denver to tie the game on quarterback Bo Nix’s 25-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. on fourth down with eight seconds remaining in the fourth quarter.

Bengals kicker Cade York then missed a 33-yard field goal in overtime before Cincinnati prevailed on quarterback Joe Burrow’s 3-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Tee Higgins. The win kept the team’s playoff hopes alive.

“The killer of the weekend was the Cincinnati game, because if Cincinnati just kicks a field goal at the end of regulation, they don’t cover, they don’t cover the second half and the game stays under,” Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray said. “It was the complete worst-case scenario. That was by far the most disappointing game of the weekend. Cincinnati covered the game and it went over, and that had almost no chance of happening at the end of regulation.

“Then we could’ve gotten it all back (Saturday) night if the Cardinals had won outright against the Rams, but they throw a pick there on first-and-goal. It’s just been that kind of season. I’m sure most of the books are frustrated with the end-of-game situations in the NFL.”

To have and have not

Favorites that did not make bettors sweat were the Bills (-10, beat Jets 40-14), Buccaneers (-10, beat Panthers 48-14) and Eagles (-7½, beat Cowboys 41-7) on Sunday, the Chargers (-6, beat Patriots 40-7) on Saturday and the Chiefs (-2, beat Steelers 29-10) and Ravens (-6½, beat Texans 31-2) on Christmas Day.

“It was another weekend dominated by the favorites. There seems to be a total lack of parity,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “In the first month of the season, it looked like the exact opposite. There was a lot of parity. But as the season has gone on, I just don’t remember such a gap between the haves and have nots.

“Bettors are seeing betting favorites on the money line or even laying big point spreads has been profitable. And that just hasn’t changed.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.