Raiders’ upset burns bettors, $2.3M in Circa Survivor entries

John Madden once said that the NFL sometimes stands for the Never Figure League.

“What you think will happen doesn’t,” the late Raiders coach and TV analyst said.

It was certainly hard to figure out Sunday for bettors and Circa Survivor contestants who didn’t forecast six outright wins by underdogs, who finished 8-4-1 against the spread (Rams-Cardinals was a pick’em).

For the second straight week, the biggest favorite on the board lost outright, as the Raiders stunned the Ravens 26-23 as 9-point road underdogs and +350 on the money line.

The Raiders, who rallied from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter, not only killed all bets on Baltimore, but they torched $2,304,000 in 2,304 Survivor entries on the Ravens, the most popular Week 2 pick in the $1,000-entry contest, which pays $14.2 million to the winner.

The Survivor field has already been slashed from 14,266 entries to 4,685 after 5,564 were knocked out in Week 1 and 4,017 so far in Week 2.

“Five of the top eight selected teams went down early Sunday, which created complete chaos,” Circa owner Derek Stevens said.

Besides the contestants that were eliminated by the Ravens, 859 lost on the Lions, 259 on the Jaguars, 255 on the Cowboys, 187 on the Colts and 96 on the 49ers.

After the carnage in the 10 a.m. games, Circa posted on X (@CircaSports): “Saturday of Week 1: ‘so many entries, you guys will have 200 winners, you should make it harder.’

“Sunday of Week 2: ‘when this ends in week 6 will you do another pool?’”

Book report

The Raiders were the biggest winner for sportsbooks, including Caesars, where a bettor lost a $227,000 money-line wager on Baltimore (-455) that would’ve paid $50,000.

“The Raiders’ outright win knocking out every money-line parlay was a huge win for us,” SuperBook vice president Jay Kornegay said. “Give the Raiders a lot of credit. They were down, and to go on the road and beat the Ravens in Baltimore, that says a lot.

“It wasn’t really a great spot for them, playing back-to-back road games.”

The other outright upsets were by the Buccaneers (+8, beat Lions 20-16), Saints (+6½, beat Cowboys 44-19), Vikings (+4½, beat 49ers 23-17), Browns (+3, beat Jaguars 18-13) and Packers (+2, beat Colts 16-10).

The Saints were another big winner for the books.

“The Saints just blowing out the Cowboys was good in many different ways, not just the outright win,” Kornegay said. “The in-game (betting) was really good. A lot of people were betting on the Cowboys to come back and make it close.

“The other big game in the morning was the Browns. There was some sharp play and a lot of parlays on the Jaguars, which made it one of our bigger decisions.”

New Orleans has exploded for 91 points in its 2-0 start, with quarterback Derek Carr throwing for five touchdowns and one interception. Why can’t the Raiders get guys like that?

“Going into the season, many people didn’t think the Saints were very good,” Red Rock Resort sportsbook director Chuck Esposito said. “And the Saints and Bucs are both 2-0 right now and look like really good offensive teams.

“It just shows you how many surprises there are right now. The Ravens, Bengals, Colts and Jaguars are 0-2. The Vikings and Seahawks are 2-0.”

Fading Panthers

The Chargers are also 2-0 and were the biggest winner for bettors, crushing Carolina 26-3 as they cruised to a cover as 4½-point road favorites. The Panthers have been outscored 73-13 in their first two games after getting whipped by the Saints 47-10 in Week 1.

Before the season started, Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow expected the Patriots to be the team the book would need every week.

“But it’s definitely the Panthers,” he said. “I think this is the first time I’ve seen a 1,000-1 shot to win the Super Bowl this early in the season.”

Other good games for bettors were the Steelers (-2½, beat Broncos 13-6) and Jets (-3½, beat Titans 24-17).

“Those went great for the customers because they’re just opposing poor quarterbacks,” Mucklow said.

Sounds like a strategy for Survivor.

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.