Sharp plays, best bets on NCAA Tournament

“Survive and advance” is not only the motto of teams in the NCAA Tournament but also that of entrants in Station Casinos’ ever-popular Last Man Standing contest.

Bettors pick one game ATS each day of the men’s college basketball tournament, 10 days in all, starting Thursday.

Professional sports bettor Terry Gomez and Las Vegas resident Dominic Barley were the Last Men Standing in last year’s contest. Each of them went 10-0 ATS to top a field of 2,065 entries and split the prize pool of $42,800.

Gomez has two best bets for Thursday’s games, and both selections were sharp plays at Las Vegas sportsbooks.

Akron (+14) over UCLA

“Akron is coming in hot, having won eight in a row,” said Gomez (@TerryGomezLV). “I do not feel the Bruins are the same team that went on the (Final Four) run last year. They’re being overvalued by the market.”

Richmond (+10½) over Iowa

“Richmond is coming in playing well off its Atlantic-10 championship,” Gomez said. “I will be looking to take advantage of a slightly inflated line, as I feel the general public will be all over Iowa after its Big Ten championship.

“I will be looking to fade the trendy pick that has consistently underperformed in the tournament.”

Murray State (-1) over San Francisco

A dozen other sharp plays have been reported by Las Vegas books, though most of the opening numbers have moved. Multiple books took sharp action on Murray State, a 1-point favorite over San Francisco after it opened as a 1½-point underdog.

Pro sports bettor Paul Stone took Murray State with the points Sunday night. He still recommends a play on the Racers -1.

Multiple Murray State players have NCAA Tournament experience, and Stone simply believes the Racers have the more talented roster. They’re 30-2 and riding a 20-game winning streak.

“I made this game pick and really believe Murray State is the better team at this point in the season,” said Stone (@PaulStoneSports). “San Francisco got off to a hot 10-0 start and turned a bunch of heads in the college basketball world early in the season, but the Dons may have unintentionally peaked too early.”

Sharp plays

Multiple books also took sharp bets (current line in parentheses) on San Diego State (-2½) over Creighton, Georgia State (+23½) over Gonzaga, Memphis (-2½) over Boise State and Colgate (+7½) over Wisconsin.

BetMGM took sharp action on three games to go over the total: Duke-Cal State Fullerton moved from 143½ to 146½; Texas Tech-Montana State went from 129½ to 132½; and Louisiana State-Iowa State shot up from 123½ to 127½.

The Westgate SuperBook also took sharp money on LSU (-4).

Vermont (+5) over Arkansas

Former Review-Journal Madness Challenge champion Doug Fitz likes Vermont to cover as a 5-point underdog against Arkansas and also recommends a smaller play on the Catamounts on the money line, which pays +190.

“The Catamounts are no strangers here with their eighth appearance in the NCAA Tournament,” said Fitz, who provides all of his picks free of charge at Systemplays.com. “They are 19-13 ATS overall, including 9-4 ATS in February and the America East tournament, all as favorites.

“Getting points is a bonus, albeit against a much tougher opponent in Arkansas. Their experience should help them stay within the number.”

Rutgers (+1) over Notre Dame

Professional handicapper Brian Edwards likes Rutgers to beat Notre Dame in the First Four on Wednesday.

“Rutgers owns an 8-6 record in 14 games against teams that made the NCAA Tournament field. The Scarlet Knights are 9-3-1 ATS with eight outright wins in their last 13 games as underdogs,” said Edwards (@vegasbedwards). “Since Feb. 3, Notre Dame has faced one team that made the field, losing that game 87-80 to Virginia Tech. The Fighting Irish are 3-6 in nine games against teams that made the field.”

Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on Twitter.