Weekend best bets: Pro picks 34-16 ATS this football season
For two decades, bettors padded their bankrolls by backing the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick Patriots to bounce back after a loss.
In recent years, the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid Chiefs have been money on the rebound. Since 2018, Kansas City leads the league with a 16-3 record after a loss. It’s 13-2 in that role since 2019 and 10-1 since 2020.
Professional sports bettor Jeff Whitelaw and Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons like the Chiefs to extend that trend Sunday against the high-flying Dolphins in their 6:30 a.m. Pacific time showdown in Frankfurt, Germany.
Kansas City, coming off a stunning 24-9 defeat at Denver, is a consensus 2-point favorite.
“The Dolphins have played two good teams — the Eagles and the Bills — and they got blown out in both games,” Whitelaw said. “Kansas City is coming off a loss, and I just think Kansas City is better than the Dolphins.
“I’m throwing out last week because Mahomes had the flu and didn’t have a very good game.”
Said Salmons: “Miami is down three offensive linemen and Andy Reid’s record after they lose is really good, so I think Kansas City is going to find a way to win that game.”
I asked pro bettors and handicappers for their weekend best bets and bookmakers for their sharp plays.
The picks in this column went 5-3 ATS last week and are 34-16 (68 percent) this season.
Sharp plays
South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews took sharp plays on a plethora of NFL sides, including the Ravens -5½ (now -6), Packers -3 (still -3), Saints -7½ (now -8½), Panthers +3 (now +2½) and Bills +3 (now +2).
Whitelaw likes Green Bay to cover at home over the Rams after losing to the Vikings last week at Lambeau Field.
“I like playing a team off a loss at home,” he said. “I like some of these teams bouncing back and coming off a loss.”
He also took the Texans (-2½) to rebound from last week’s loss at Carolina against the Buccaneers, who have lost three straight.
“I don’t think Tampa’s that good,” he said. “I like the Texans laying less than a field goal at home.”
The SuperBook took college football bets from a sharp group on Temple +7 (still +7), Northwestern +6 (now +5), Illinois +3 (now +1½), Arizona +3 (now +2½), San Diego State +3 (now +2½) and Boise State +3½ (now +2½).
Salmons likes Arizona over UCLA. The Wildcats have won back-to-back games against Oregon State and Washington State and have covered four straight.
“Arizona’s kind of an under-the-radar team. They’ve dramatically improved,” he said. “And UCLA on the road against good teams has always been a little iffy.”
Salmons also bet on Georgia Tech (+2) over Virginia.
“There’s no way Virginia should be favored in that game,” he said.
Oklahoma State (+6)
After a shaky September, Oklahoma State won and covered all four of its games in October.
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone likes the Cowboys to cover as 6-point home underdogs to Oklahoma in what figures to be the final edition of The Bedlam Series, at least for the foreseeable future.
“Boone Pickens Stadium is no picnic for any visitor, and I expect it will be even more raucous on Saturday considering the opponent and circumstances,” Stone said. “Love him or loathe him, (Oklahoma State coach) Mike Gundy gets the most out of his roster. The Cowboys seem to be gaining momentum and confidence each and every week.”
Oklahoma State is riding a 9-4 run against the spread as a home underdog.
Georgia Tech-Virginia Over 57
Pritchardspicks.com handicapper Scott Pritchard has two entries tied for seventh place (33-22-1 ATS) in the Golden Nugget’s Ultimate Football Challenge. He likes the Yellow Jackets and Cavaliers to fly over the total.
“Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King is in a zone,” Pritchard said. “He accounted for four TDs and almost 400 yards passing and running in last week’s 46-42 win over North Carolina. Points will be cheap.”
Jets (+3½)
Two-time Westgate SuperContest winner Steve Fezzik is tied for fifth in a field of 5,273 in the Circa Sports Million contest with a 28-10-2 ATS record. He likes the Jets to cover as Monday night home underdogs to the Chargers.
“Who are the Chargers to be laying 3½ on the road traveling all the way across the country?” said Fezzik (@FezzikSports). “I only have the Chargers’ power-rated three points better. And so many Chargers games are very close games.”
Contact reporter Todd Dewey at tdewey@reviewjournal.com. Follow @tdewey33 on X.
