Bubble trouble imperils Rebels

When times get tough, even veteran basketball coaches can blow up under pressure. After a rough week for UNLV that included a pair of 10-point losses, coach Lon Kruger shows no signs of getting rattled.

Teams on the NCAA Tournament bubble -- the fringe of the 65-team field -- must avoid imploding in February.

The Rebels missed two opportunities to bolster their resume by losing to New Mexico on Wednesday and San Diego State on Saturday, thus reserving their seat on the bubble for a tenuous stretch run.

"Of course we're concerned, and I think most teams in the country are concerned right now," Kruger said. "Not a lot of teams are a lock to get in the tournament."

The key to UNLV's postseason fate -- aside from winning the Mountain West Conference Tournament in March -- appears to be a trip to Salt Lake City on Wednesday. The Rebels (19-6, 7-4 MWC) meet Utah (11-13, 4-6) at 7 p.m. in a game with postseason implications. A Utes win would push both teams a step closer to the National Invitation Tournament.

Last week, Connecticut coach Jim Calhoun repeatedly said he was "embarrassed" by his team's effort after a loss. North Carolina's Roy Williams compared his team's losing streak to the "catastrophe" in Haiti. Kruger is far more calm, even if UNLV fans are one more loss from being driven crazy with NIT nightmares.

"It's a huge game," Kruger said, "but we've got five huge games left. We'll play each one like it's the most important game of the season."

But the Utah game is the biggest. The Rebels need to avenge their most embarrassing loss of the season and avoid getting swept by a sub-.500 team. The Utes upset UNLV 73-69 on Jan. 16 at the Thomas & Mack Center.

Still, according to the experts who project NCAA Tournament brackets, the Rebels are in a strong position.

In his "Bracketology" report for ESPN.com, Joe Lunardi placed UNLV as a No. 7 seed in the East Region. Lunardi projects Brigham Young and New Mexico as No. 4 seeds.

"UNLV missed its chance to lock up an NCAA at-large bid by losing a pair of games last week," wrote Mark Schlabach of ESPN.com. "As long as it doesn't collapse down the stretch, UNLV should be included in the NCAA's 65-team field."

Jerry Palm of CBSSports.com projects the Rebels as a No. 6 seed in the West, and he slotted New Mexico at No. 4 in the South and BYU at No. 6 in the East. Palm and Lunardi each excluded San Diego State from their brackets.

UNLV is No. 36 in the Ratings Percentage Index, behind the Lobos (No. 9) and Cougars (22) and ahead of the Aztecs (40). The Rebels, 8-2 on the road, boast quality victories over Louisville, Arizona, BYU, New Mexico and San Diego State.

After playing Utah, which ranks No. 159 in the RPI, UNLV can't improve its position much by finishing against lightweights Colorado State, Texas Christian, Air Force and Wyoming.

"While those wins won't help UNLV's RPI numbers," wrote Mike Huguenin of Rivals.com, "any loss would be a bad one."

Contact reporter Matt Youmans at myoumans@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2907.