Breaking down UNLV’s final 4 opponents, chances to make MW title game

UNLV football coach Barry Odom gave credit to a “good team,” thanked the home crowd and looked ahead after another high-stakes game ended in a loss Oct. 25 at Allegiant Stadium.

It was a loss to Boise State — the second of the season after falling to Syracuse — and Odom now faced the reality that the future is no longer in the Rebels’ control. They are 6-2 overall and 2-1 in the Mountain West, and have a bye this weekend.

“We’re going to need a little help around the conference, probably to get in the championship game,” Odom said. “But that has always been one of our goals, to compete and win a conference championship. Now, the way that things are set up in college football, if you do that, there’s a number of other doors that open up.”

Since the season began, the Rebels expressed hopes to go undefeated and claim a spot in the College Football Playoff — the latter of which could still be attained despite the two losses.

The playoff field has expanded to 12 teams, with five bids automatically reserved for the highest-ranked conference champions. The remaining seven spots will go to the next highest-ranked teams overall, independent of conference. The selection committee will consider strength of schedule, championships won and more.

Reigning champion Boise State (6-1, 3-0) is a shoo-in to make the Mountain West title game, which will be played between the two teams with the highest conference winning percentage.

To set up a 2023 league championship rematch between the Broncos and the Rebels, UNLV would need to win out, as Odom said.

But the largest kink lies with Colorado State (5-3, 3-0), which won’t face UNLV or Boise State. The Rams have games remaining against UNR, Wyoming, Fresno State and Utah State.

“Time will tell,” Odom said. “There’ll be a lot of ball played here in the next five weeks, and we’ll see what plays out.”

Here’s a look at UNLV’s four remaining regular-season matchups, all of which ESPN Analytics predict the Rebels to win with at least 75 percent likelihood:

Hawaii

A win Nov. 9 at Hawaii would extend UNLV’s road record to 5-0.

Hawaii (3-5, 1-2) had lost three straight before blowing out UNR 34-13 last week. Quarterback Brayden Schager was named the Mountain West’s offensive player of the week after rushing for four touchdowns in the victory, tying a program record. That accolade could be more of an indictment on UNR’s ground defense, as Schager has 151 rushing yards and four TDs in 38 of his other career games combined.

San Diego State

San Diego State (3-4, 2-0) played Boise State and star running back Ashton Jeanty on Friday in Idaho, then will host New Mexico before coming to Allegiant Stadium on Nov. 16.

Entering the Boise State game, the Aztecs had played four straight games that were decided by three points or less, going 2-2.

San Diego State’s defense could cause problems for UNLV. The Aztecs are ranked No. 3 in the country with an average of four sacks per game and 28 total.

San Jose State

San Jose State (5-3, 3-2) ends its regular season with a tough stretch of games, facing Oregon State and Boise State before hosting the Rebels on Nov. 22.

The Spartans are on the brink of reaching bowl eligibility for the third straight season but are 2-2 in their past four games. They lost to Fresno State 33-10 last week.

Quarterback play seems to be the biggest issue. Emmett Brown started the first six games, and the Spartans have since also played Walker Eget and Xavier Ward. The three were a combined 21 of 51 for 309 yards and four interceptions against Fresno State.

UNR

UNLV and UNR (3-6, 0-3) are intrastate rivals, but the Rebels will be heavy favorites when the teams meet Nov. 30 at Allegiant Stadium in the 50th battle for the Fremont Cannon.

UNLV defeated a winless UNR team 45-27 for the coveted trophy last season.

UNR’s struggles begin with penalties. First-year coach Jeff Choate recently threatened to start cutting players because his team is one of the most penalized in the nation, ranking sixth-highest in penalties per game (8.56) and penalty yards per game (81).

Contact Callie Fin at cfin@reviewjournal.com. Follow @CallieJLaw on X.