Schedule sets up for UNLV to contend for bowl game

The pressure won’t be on UNLV, a 26½-point underdog, when it opens its football season Saturday at No. 15 Southern California.

It’s the games that follow in which the Rebels will try to make a run at a December bowl. They came close last season in finishing 5-7.

Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall likes their chances under fourth-year coach Tony Sanchez, but said there is more at stake than simply making the postseason

“They’re incrementally, slowly getting better, but if they fall back for a year, they could ill afford the (negative) momentum, especially going into this new stadium in a couple of years,” Marshall said. “They cannot step back right now, so this is a very crucial year for him.”

UNLV’s schedule breaks down in an organized way, with the first four games against nonconference opponents, the next three versus Mountain Division teams and the final five against West Division schools.

Nonconference games

Should UNLV lose at USC as expected, the Rebels then will be favored in back-to-back games at Sam Boyd Stadium — Sept. 8 against Texas-El Paso and Sept. 15 against Prairie View A&M.

Marshall, though, said beware of the UTEP game, especially if the Rebels put up a good showing at USC, which he expects.

“This is the UNLV pattern,” Marshall said. “I can see them playing very well in the first game and feeling pretty good not getting destroyed if it plays out like I think, and then being cocky here. Sanchez has not been a good home favorite, as least the last couple of years. He’s 3-7, 1-4 last year, and we know what happened in the Howard game (43-40 loss).

“I think maybe they’ll be ready to roll against Prairie View. UTEP’s the one that bothers me a little bit because they’re right on the heels of SC. … I think this game is more indicative of how the season’s going to go. If they take care of business against UTEP, I think it bodes well. If they don’t, or even if they win but it’s a struggle, that might suggest same old, same old and you just can’t trust these guys.”

The Rebels conclude nonconference play Sept. 22 at Arkansas State, which has won at least a share of the Sun Belt Conference five of the past seven years.

“This one is also sort of a bellwether, how they will be able to fare in the Mountain West,” Marshall said. “This is the most Mountain West-type team they will face in the preleague.”

Mountain Division games

UNLV should be favored in two of its three Mountain West games, against New Mexico on Oct. 6 and Air Force on Oct. 19. Both are at home.

The Rebels will have a much tougher challenge Oct. 13 at Utah State.

“I think they should be sitting at 4-3,” Marshall said. “If they are worse than 4-3 after the Air Force game, I don’t think they’re going to a bowl.”

West Division games

The Rebels open this stretch Oct. 27 at San Jose State, a game they should win fairly comfortably.

That probably would put them at 5-3 with a tough finishing stretch.

■ Fresno State on Nov. 3 at Sam Boyd will be looking for revenge after last season’s upset loss to UNLV.

■ UNLV plays at San Diego State on Nov. 10, a place where the Rebels haven’t won since 2000.

■ The following week at Hawaii could be an excellent chance for a victory, but Honolulu is a tough trip, and the Rainbow Warriors showed in their 43-34 win at Colorado State on Saturday that they might be better than expected. Plus, Hawaii will be rested after a bye.

■ Then there is the Nov. 24 home game against UNR, and it’s been 14 years since the Rebels have beaten their chief rival at home. The Wolf Pack ended UNLV’s bowl hopes last season with a 23-16 home victory.

“I would not like them to be in position where they’ve got to beat Reno in the last game to get bowl eligible because we saw what happened last year,” Marshall said. “I think Reno might be OK this year.

“I think they’ll be 6-5 (going) into the Reno game, and I’m not sure what happens in that one.”

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Contact Mark Anderson at manderson@reviewjournal.com. Follow @markanderson65 on Twitter.