COVID-19 Predicted to Kill 200,000
in the US by October, Model Says.
The model comes from the Institute for
Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME)
at the University of Washington.
It was once used by the
White House to map out
the pandemic’s trajectory.
Just last week, the model predicted that
30,000 fewer people would die from the virus.
Its newest projections place the number of deaths
between 171,000 and 270,000 by October 1.
The IHME says that a reason for the increase is
the “relaxation” of social distancing guidelines
in individual states.
IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray
adds that underlying factors are increases
in contact rates and mobility.
Starting in the third week of August in our forecast at the national level, we see the daily death rate… going up again, after having been declining since mid-April at the national level, Dr. Christopher Murray, via press briefing.
That increase in daily deaths really starts to gather momentum from mid-September onwards, Dr. Christopher Murray, via press briefing.
Murray also explains that the
usage of face masks heavily
influences the model’s projections.
Cases are dropping in hard-hit states
such as New York and New Jersey.
They are rising in others, including
Florida, Texas, and Arizona.
A month ago, Arizona was reporting
around 400 new cases per day.
The state is now seeing
over 1,000 cases daily
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