Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers get edge in NLCS

It’s a rematch between the Cubs and Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. But their roles have been completely reversed.

This time, the favored Dodgers have the best regular-season record in baseball at 104-58 — not to mention their own championship drought. It isn’t more than a century, but 29 years are long enough for Los Angeles.

More to the point, the Cubs were the ones this season who got stuck in a long, first-round series with the Nationals, so their pitching staff is exhausted as they head to Los Angeles to face a well-rested Clayton Kershaw. He and the Dodgers opened as minus-180 favorites in Game 1 and a 3-2 favorite to win the World Series.

When the Cubs won last year’s NLCS in six games, Kershaw could not pitch until Game 2. Even then, he was working for the third time in six days. By the time the Dodgers called on him again to pitch Game 6, his left arm was shot.

This time, thanks to a sweep of the Diamondbacks, Kershaw comes into Saturday’s opener off a week’s rest. He could pitch in three games and still be more rested than he was at this time last year — and more rested than the Chicago staff is right now. The Cubs also can’t count on a repeat of last year, when they jumped all over Kenta Maeda, Julio Urías and Joe Blanton.

The other big differences are that the Dodgers have the home field and soon-to-be Rookie of the Year Cody Bellinger. He is a huge upgrade at first base over Adrian Gonzalez, who hit .190 in last year’s NLCS.

Yes, Corey Seager’s elbow and back are a bit of a worry, and we have to wonder if Kershaw will be the lights-out pitcher he was before his back flared up this summer. But because of a rested Kershaw, a rising star in Bellinger and impenetrable closer Kenley Jansen, I clearly favor the Dodgers.

After that? Well, let’s just see how the Astros and Yankees go.

NFL underdogs worth a look

One thing is certain about Week 6 in the NFL. The five underdogs that are getting at least nine points are not going 0-5 against the spread.

The Jets look like a tempting play getting 9½ points at home against New England, but I know better than to go against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in their first division game of the season, even with a Super Bowl rematch coming next week against Atlanta.

Instead, the Falcons could be caught looking ahead. They will be home Sunday, laying 12 points against a Miami team that is coming off a victory against Tennessee.

While all the attention in Miami seems focused on whether Jay Cutler has anything left, it’s easy to overlook a good Dolphins defense. Their rotating linemen — Ndamukong Suh, Andre Branch, Cameron Wake, William Hayes and Charles Harris — have 8½ sacks among them, and Nate Allen and Reshad Jones are good safeties.

While a lot of Miami fans have given up on Cutler, I am giving him another chance. This is not to say the Dolphins will win Sunday, but they can cover the 12 points.

Another quarterback worth another look is Kevin Hogan. He mopped up for the Browns last week and didn’t look half-bad. Now Hogan and the Browns are getting 9½ points visiting the battered Houston Texans. The injuries to J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus could be crippling to the Texans defense.

The Texans’ Deshaun Watson has been the best of the rookie quarterbacks, throwing for 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. But he has been sacked 13 times, and with Myles Garrett back on the field, the Browns defense will be that much better. Perhaps enough to beat the spread.

If there is one lesson in all this for bettors, it is to avoid focusing too much on offenses. Cincinnati, Cleveland, Chicago and Miami have top-10 defenses, and that might be enough to get a few covers.

Brent Musburger’s betting column appears Saturday in the Las Vegas Review-Journal. His show on the Vegas Stats & Information Network can be heard on SiriusXM 204 and livestreamed at reviewjournal.com/vegas-stats-information-network.