Jump in vaccinated Nevadans could land ‘knockout blow’ to coronavirus

Higher vaccination rates could deal a “knockout blow” to COVID-19, despite growing numbers of more infectious strains of the disease in Nevada, the head of the state public health lab said Thursday.

More than half of the positive COVID-19 test samples analyzed at the state lab now show “variants of concern,” strains of the virus that may be more infectious, more resistant to coronavirus-fighting antibodies, and potentially more lethal.

Paradoxically, there’s a silver lining in the dominance of troubling variants when disease numbers are declining, said Mark Pandori, director of the Nevada State Public Health Laboratory at the University of Nevada, Reno.

“This is good news, because the numbers are actually dropping even when the more biologically infectious variants are circulating,” he said. “It also emphasizes that if vaccinations could go up, we would probably have a knockout blow here; I mean a total victory.”

Pandori’s comments came at a state COVID-19 task force meeting following a report that COVID-19 case numbers, the positivity rate and other disease metrics continue to improve across the state.

In the 14 days ending May 14, genetic analysis showed that nearly 62 percent of positive tests sampled at the public lab were of a strain first spotted in the U.K., known as B.1.1.7. This strain, which the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says is 50 percent more infectious that the original coronavirus strain, was blamed for a spike in cases in Britain early this year and is thought to be contributing to the devastating toll the pandemic is now taking in India.

Another 7 percent of the cases analyzed were of a South African strain called B.1.351, also a variant of concern.

Variants increase, metrics improve

Despite this, Nevada’s COVID-19 numbers are improving. The state is averaging 176 new daily cases, in contrast to 269 a month ago, state biostatistician Kyra Morgan told the state’s COVID-19 Mitigation and Management Task Force.

The state’s test positivity rate is 4.8 percent, below the 5.9 percent of a month ago.

COVID-19-related hospitalizations are stable at 301 confirmed and suspected cases across the state, she said, even as business occupancy rates have been allowed to increase and other steps toward more fully reopening have been taken.

The state is averaging three daily deaths from COVID-19, according to the state’s coronavirus website. ‘“This is just kind of hovering at what I would consider the lowest we’ve seen really since the start of the pandemic,” Morgan said. “So this is good news across the board.”

Morgan said that 46 percent of Nevada’s population eligible for vaccination has gotten a shot of vaccine, and 37 percent is completely inoculated. Although nowhere near an earlier goal of a 75 percent vaccination rate, the current levels are having a significant impact on transmission of disease, she said.

Following Thursday’s meeting, Pandori said that he could not estimate a vaccination percentage that would be needed to quell the virus, since too little is still known about the infectiousness of virus variants that currently are spreading.

Chasing herd immunity

Public health authorities have said immunity through either vaccination or infection would need to reach a threshold of 60 percent to 80 percent in a given community to stop the disease from spreading easily. The concept is often referred to as herd immunity.

Pandori said in an email that his comments were meant to convey that “through a routine vaccination process, like we have for flu and other organisms, we can have significant control over this virus.”

“I’m suggesting that between mask wearing, social distancing, natural immunity and vaccinations, we are seeing consistent and significant drops in the virus numbers. If those things are maintained, and vaccinations increase, there is every reason to believe that an even stronger blow can be given to this virus.”

The current environment for virus variants is “very hostile,” he said. “That hostility started with social distancing and mask wearing. It got worse with natural immunity and vaccinations.

“Pile on. Keep it going,” he said of strategies for controlling the coronavirus.

“Scientists are going to be chasing this thing into every crack and crevice for years, but it will always take everyone to win this.”